“It may be noted that in terms of the provisions relating to impeachment proceedings, the House of Representatives charges an official of the federal government by approving the articles of impeachment by majority vote, but the Constitution requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate to convict the person being impeached. The Democrat-controlled House had impeached Trump in December 2019 for pressurizing the president of Ukraine to investigate Biden, but the Republican-held Senate had acquitted him in February 2020.”

In December 2019, when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had announced a formal impeachment enquiry against President Trump, she recounted an anecdote to back her arguments. Pelosi said, “On the final day of the Constitutional Convention in 1787, when our Constitution was adopted, Americans gathered on the steps of Independence Hall to await the news of the government our founders had crafted. They asked Benjamin Franklin, ‘What do we have, a republic or a monarchy?’ Franklin replied, ‘A republic, if you can keep it.’

Pelosi was again in the forefront of efforts to ‘ Keep the Republic’ in the wake of fresh, unprecedented challenges.  Wednesday 6th January 2021 will go down as perhaps the darkest and most embarrassing day in history for most Americans because on that day the country’s President incited a mob of his supporters to attack and ransack the Capitol, the temple of America’s democracy which houses the Senate and the House of Representatives.

More than two months had elapsed since the US Presidential elections were held on November 3, but President Trump refused to accept the verdict which had gone in favor of his rival, Joe Biden. He complained that the Presidential election results were “rigged” due to widespread fraud, while election officials repeatedly said that there was no evidence to back Trump’s claims. The Trump campaign also filed dozens of lawsuits challenging the election results but was rebuffed in most state and federal courts.

Claiming that the election had been stolen from him, Trump incited a mob of his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol when the US Congress met on January 6 to formally count the Electoral College votes. Violence broke out as the mob ransacked the Capitol, and members of Congress were forced to go into hiding for their safety. Five persons died in the mayhem, including a policeman. Reports indicate that eighty-two persons have been arrested and police are on the hunt for others who were involved in the attack.

Although Congress reconvened the following day and certified Biden’s election victory, Trump was severely criticized for inciting the violence, including by some members of his own Party. Top Democratic Party leaders including Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer (leader of the Democrats in the Senate) called on Vice President Mike Pence and Trump’s Cabinet to invoke the U.S. Constitution’s 25th Amendment, which allows them to strip the president of his powers if he is unfit to discharge the duties of his office. They also said that if Pence and Trump’s Cabinet refuse to do so, they would call for Trump to be impeached. “The president’s dangerous and seditious acts necessitate his immediate removal from office,” they said in a statement accusing Trump of inciting an “insurrection.” As expected, Pence refused to rule that Trump was no longer capable of discharging his duties, setting the stage for the impeachment.

President Donald Trump, who was charged with “incitement of insurrection” over the mob siege of the Capitol, becomes the first President in the history of the United States to be impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time. The House voted 232-197 to impeach Trump. Significantly, ten Republicans joined the Democrats saying that he should be held accountable and warned of a “danger” if Congress should leave him unchecked ahead of Joe Biden’s inauguration.

What now lies on the road ahead?

This time also, while the Democrat-dominated House has impeached him, will the two-thirds majority of the Senate required for conviction be obtained? There is so far no indication that enough members of the president’s party would agree to convict him. Thus, the impeachment proceedings started for a second time against Trump might end with the same outcome as before.

Thus, in other words, Trump could again escape conviction by the Senate even though he has been impeached by the House. However, nothing can be ruled out in politics. Trump has said that he will be running for President in 2024; he will be 78 years old at that time, but so is Biden right now! Therefore, his age may not work against him. Going by present indications, he has a strong support base which might again propel him ahead of other Republican candidates and help him get his party’s nomination as it did in 2016″.

Would his rivals relish that possibility? Or, would they rather have him elbowed out of the way? In other words, will Trump’s rivals work with the Democrats in the impeachment process in order to put an end to his political career? The drift of public opinion is against Trump, and they might find it convenient to go along. Politics, like adversity makes strange bed-fellows, and nothing can be ruled out at this juncture.

Can the process continue even after Trump leaves office? Legal experts are divided on this matter. There are some who believe that Trump can only be impeached while he is office, while there are others who believe that if the process has commenced in the House, it could continue in the Senate even after he has left office. In this regard, they have cited a legal precedent. In 1876, Secretary of War William Belknap was investigated by the House for corruption. Just minutes before the House was set to vote on his impeachment, he went to the White House and handed his resignation to President Ulysses Grant. However, the House went ahead and impeached him. The Senate also proceeded to have a trial though he was acquitted as two-thirds of the Senators did not vote in favor of the conviction.

The coming days, therefore, will be watched with great interest not just in America but all across the globe.

(The author is a retired diplomat)