• Special Report on Rajasthan Assembly Polls

JAIPUR (TIP): The elections are finally here in the sandy desert of Rajasthan. Mainly it would be a contest between the ruling Congress and Opposition BJP parties, but the state level political parties have put both of them in a triangular contest on about 80 seats.

The high-profile election campaign for 199 seats of assembly has ended as the ruling Congress, the BJP, BSP, RLP, CPI-M, and AAP have left no stone unturned to lure the voters for the November 25 voting in Rajasthan. Though the voting was scheduled on 200 seats but election on one seat of Karanpur was postponed after Congress candidate Gurmeet Kunnar’s death.

One thing is very clear that there is no wave in this election like there was Modi wave in LS 2014 and 2018 polls. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is overwhelmed that there has been no anti-incumbency factor to his government that could harm his prospects of winning a second consecutive term in the present polls. Gehlot’s 10 flagship schemes implemented in his tenure and offering 7-gurantees, if voted to power, has kept BJP troubled and confused, that is why the Modi government inaugurated and laid the foundation stone of schemes worth crores of rupees in all sectors in the last six months.

For the last 15 years, there was a pattern of one term (five years) for one party and the next term for another party. Once BJP, second time Congress. It appears that it’s no cakewalk for BJP which is considering her turn of power as certain with greedy eyes. Congress is complacent of its flagship schemes and 7-guarantees.

While the BJP is solely dependent on party symbol ‘Kamal’ (lotus) and ‘Modi Face’ as projected by the Prime Minister himself in various poll rallies. Keeping away the prominent local leaders mainly former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje from his coterie, Modi was always joined in every poll rally, road shows and meetings by the State BJP President CP Joshi who is LS MP from Chittorgarh too. At a few public meetings, Raje was seen sitting on dais with the PM but did not deliver her speech. Without taking any risk, BJP has fielded its 7 MPs in the assembly elections, that too by changing their original constituencies.

In the last assembly poll 2018, out of 200 Legislative Assembly, the Congress had won and formed the government with 100 (with one alliance partner) MLAs, whereas BJP had 71, RLP 3, BSP 6 (who later joined the Congress in 2019), Independent 13, CPI-M and BTP 2 each. Congress has votes percentage of 39.30 and BJP secured 38.77 percent. The government formation by the Congress took place at the difference of 0.53 percent against the BJP.

 Probably third front, the BSP, RLP, Tribal Parties (BTP and ATP) which are having up to 1 to 4 percent of vote share are going to give a triangular contest to the Congress and BJP. Like BSP and Independents which supported the Gehlot government when the BJP allegedly tried to topple the Government in 2020-21, can play a major role in forming the new government, if it is a hung assembly.

Congress’ CM Ashok Gehlot, Sachin Pilot, CP Joshi, Govind Singh Dotasara, Dr B D Kalla and BJP’s Vasundhara Raje, Rajendra Rathore, seven sitting BJP MPs and one of the RLP are among the 1875 contestants are in the fray.

Besides two major political parties, BSP’s 188 candidates, AAP’s 87, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party’s (RLP) 77, Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) 5 and CPI-M’s 17 contestants are vying the election. Out of 1875 candidates, the Congress has fielded 200 (with one alliance of RLD), BJP 200, Independents 737, BSP 185, AAP 86, RLD 78, and CPI-M Three.

Twenty-six ministers including Gehlot are also trying hard to return to their constituencies. Seventeen rebels of Congress, and 23 of BJP are among other third front parties facing triangular contests on at least 85 seats. Congress has given tickets to contest polls only to 27 women (13.5 percent), and BJP 20 (10 percent). Besides the BJP, all other parties have given opportunity to Muslims to try their luck for legislatorship.

Modi and his cabinet colleagues, BJP leaders including Vasundhara Raje, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Congress’ star campaigners Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, AAPs Arvind Kejriwal and BSP Supremo Mayawati have held poll meetings since November 9 in the constituencies in support of their contestants by making guarantees and promises.

The PM has held about 20 meetings out of 26 planned so far, and a big roadshow in Jaipur and Bikaner. Kharge, Priyanka, and Rahul Gandhi accompanied by Gehlot, party in charge Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa, and Sachin Pilot have conducted whirlwind electioneering. There were allegations and counter allegations from both sides by star campaigners. Literally there was mudslinging between the top leaders of both the BJP and the Congress.

In its election manifesto, the ruling Congress has given assurance of 7-guarantees besides its ongoing 10 flagship schemes, if voted to power. Jan Ghoshna Patra-II (manifesto) assuring to raise the medical health insurance “Cheeranjivi’ from Rs.25 lakh to Rs.50 lakh, besides offering 10 lakh new jobs to the youths which included 4 lakh government jobs if voted to power, and to provide Rs. 2 lakh bank loan without interest to farmers.

Whereas the BJP in its Sankalp Patra assuring a strong government, best infrastructure, life safety to women-Dalit-poor, free education to girls, a bonanza of farmers’ schemes, and Ladli Protsahan Yojna. Kisan Saman Nidhi would be raised to Rs.12000 per annum and the LPG cylinder to deserving Ujjwala beneficiaries would be provided in Rs. 450, and about 2.5 lakh government jobs too.

Twenty-six ministers including CM Gehlot are also trying hard to return to their constituencies. Seventeen rebels of Congress, and 23 of BJP are among other third front parties facing triangular contests on at least 80 seats. Congress has given tickets to contest polls only to 27 women (13.5 percent), and BJP 20 (10 percent). Besides the BJP, all other parties have given opportunity to Muslims to try their luck for legislator.

Most of the BJP’s star campaigners including the PM, Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh have raised the anti-Gehlot regime issues including the worst law and order condition, paper leak scam, appeasement policy to shelter terrorists, red diary pages’ secrets, women and girls’ rape, private lockers, Udaipur’s Kanhaiya Lal beheading case, and corruption scams in mining and other departments. The BJP also twisted the Congress’ arm on religion, caste, and Sanatan dharma by fielding 5 sants from Sirohi, Tizara, Pokhran and Hawamahal seats.

Congress leaders trying their best to defend the allegations made by the BJP star campaigners including the PM and Shah, and Gehlot challenged them to discuss and take up the matters related to the state government’s flagship schemes like OPS, Health Insurance, Farmers’ loan waiver, Women relief in LPG cylinder, free mobile to women, and recently introduced 7-guarantees. RaGa is constantly hitting the BJP for not thinking of ‘caste census/survey’ in the country. Congress criticized the Central government’s Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax raids and sent a strong message to the public for Modi’s anti-democratic move.

Final verdict of this election is still in the hands of voters (other than BJP & Congress’ fundamental voters) that may swing due to two factors; the castes (SC/ST/OBC/Minority/Gurjar/Jat/Rajput) and candidate’s close affinity with voters. Caste factor most of the time dominate and decides the candidates’ fate in the Rajasthan polls.

NaMo

On his last poll meeting at Sagwara on Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “I am predicting that Ashok Gehlot’s government will never be formed in the state. Last time also by committing sin they (Congress) threw dust in your eyes; this time they are doing it in a new name. Clean up the mess of Congress.”

Gehlot 

In an interaction with our correspondent, Gehlot has expressed confidence that the Congress would retain power in the state by securing a massive mandate in the Assembly elections.

“There is no anti-incumbency against the Congress government in the state despite the fact that the Assembly elections are round the corner. We will beat the anti-incumbency trend for the first time in the state,” he said in an interview to our senior correspondent recently. Congress is united, BJP not able to even identify CM face in Rajasthan, Gehlot said.

CM claimed that the state government was taking decisions with the aim of providing the maximum relief to the people and the schemes launched by his government were being discussed across the country. ”People in other parts of the country are talking about our schemes, like the Old Pension Scheme and the Right to Health.”

Pilot 

Sachin Pilot told this reporter, “There is conflict, disunity, and lack of a prominent leadership in the state BJP. The governments that were formed in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the vision that we had projected, were accepted by the people and are being accepted here in Rajasthan too. Our credibility, and we are contesting elections together. This has been going on in Rajasthan for the last 15 years, once Congress and second time BJP. People want to change this tradition – by voting for Congress in these assembly polls.

Mayawati 

The BSP Supremo Mayawati told the public meeting at Khetri in Jhunjhunu that the Congress and the BJP were the two sides of the same coin in corruption and hurting sentiments of Dalits. She anticipates that the key to power in Rajasthan will be in the hands of BSP.