Political consequences of assassination attempt on ex-President Trump will be huge

“The reality is that violence has become a part of American political life. The courts have not helped by loosening controls on the availability and ownership of guns. An attempt to ban assault weapons like the Colt AR-15 that was used to target Trump lasted just 10 years and faced repeated challenges in court. Currently, certain states ban such weapons through their own legislation; Pennsylvania, where the incident occurred, is not among them. It is largely with such weapons that mass shootings are carried out; in July, there has already been one other shooting, leading to five deaths. In 2023, there were 604 shootings, leaving 754 people dead and nearly 2,500 injured. To say that the US Supreme Court has been unhelpful here would be an understatement.”

The political consequences of the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump will be huge and they will benefit him immensely. Of great import is Trump’s instinctive and combative response to the attack. As he was encircled by Secret Service agents, with blood streaking down his face, he raised his right fist, shouting “Fight. Fight. Fight”.

Images of a bloodied and angry Trump with a fist clenched, and an American flag fluttering behind him, have gone viral and will become iconic in the campaign. The presidential contest had already been plunged into turmoil just two weeks ago when Joe Biden’s performance in the presidential debate raised questions about his ability to run an effective campaign.

It has been Trump’s signature approach to put himself across as a martyr and victim of persecution on account of the legal cases against him. Now, his close shave with death will add to the notion of martyrdom.

By seizing the news cycle, the Trump assassination attempt could have the inadvertent effect of stilling the campaign for the removal of Biden as the Democratic nominee following the debate debacle. The Trump campaign would like nothing better than that.

The shooting will complicate the Biden campaign. In the past week, the President said he would now focus directly on Trump and his view was that he remained the best candidate to beat him. Indeed, his rhetoric that “it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye” is now being retailed by some Republicans as a call to violence against their candidate. JD Vance, a potential vice-presidential candidate for the Republicans, posted that this was not an isolated incident but the inevitable consequence of the Democratic rhetoric that Trump was “an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs”.

The reality is that violence has become a part of American political life. The courts have not helped by loosening controls on the availability and ownership of guns. An attempt to ban assault weapons like the Colt AR-15 that was used to target Trump lasted just 10 years and faced repeated challenges in court. Currently, certain states ban such weapons through their own legislation; Pennsylvania, where the incident occurred, is not among them. It is largely with such weapons that mass shootings are carried out; in July, there has already been one other shooting, leading to five deaths. In 2023, there were 604 shootings, leaving 754 people dead and nearly 2,500 injured. To say that the US Supreme Court has been unhelpful here would be an understatement.

In recent years, violence has dogged the US election process since the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, when Trump’s supporters sought to overturn the result of the election that was won by Biden. Nine people died in the mayhem before the insurrection was suppressed and for which Trump faces charges.

The current American polity is deeply divided. A Pew Research Centre poll has found that nearly two-thirds in each party believe that those in the other are immoral, dishonest and close-minded.

That Trump’s rhetoric is incendiary is no secret. In an interview in March, he declared that there would be a ‘bloodbath’ if he lost in November; later at a rally, he repeated: “Now if I don’t get elected… it’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.” In March 2023, he had warned of “potential death and destruction” if he was charged by the Manhattan district attorney for the case in which he was later convicted. There are numerous instances of his threats that “there will be riots in the streets”, “bedlam in the country” if he was wronged. His followers have spoken of violence against migrants, foreigners and people of non-White races. Indeed, after his May conviction on 34 felony counts, pro-Trump websites were flooded with calls for riots, revolution and violent retribution.

There has been a political pattern in the violence of recent years. In 2017, Steve Scalise, Republican House Majority Whip, was shot at during a baseball game by an anti-Republican gunman, who was shot dead. In 2018, a Florida man mailed pipe bombs to critics of then President Trump. Among those targeted were Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris. Two years later, six persons were convicted of a plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and make her stand ‘trial’ for treason before the 2020 elections. In 2022, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi was targeted; her husband was seriously injured in an attack. The far-right assailant had planned to take Pelosi hostage.

In these circumstances, the average American is bound to be disheartened and dispirited. The way they see it is that the extreme wings of both parties are holding sway, leaving little room for the bipartisanship that characterized American polity in the past.

In the coming days and weeks, we will see the unfolding of the consequences of recent events — the Biden debate fiasco and, layered upon it, the assassination attempt on Trump. While most right-thinking people will be hoping that the shock impact of the attack will bring a certain calmness in its wake, there is no guarantee of it. A Pandora’s box has been priced open by social media and already the evils of disinformation, hyperbole, extremism, racism, polarization and distrust are swirling about cyberworld, with the Russians and Chinese adding their bit.

A great deal depends on how Trump handles the situation. He could choose to use the assassination attempt to attack the Democrats and deepen divisions or take the high road and seek to heal the partisan rifts. But grievance and retribution have long been Trump themes, and though his immediate response has been cool and sober, all bets are off on which direction he could take in the coming days.
( The author is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)