The loss in the Kairana Lok Sabha byelection has confirmed the erosion of voter enthusiasm towards the BJP in UP. As was the case in the election to the two Lok Sabha seats vacated by the UP CM and Deputy CM, respectively, well over 10 per cent of the 2014 voter in Kairana did not bother to vote. This dip in the BJP’s poll percentage in all the three UP parliamentary constituencies leads to the logical conclusion about a loss in ardor among the saffron party’s adherents after voting with their feet in the UP 2017 Assembly polls. This trend is confirmed by the 10 Assembly byelection results, exemplified by the Congress’ comprehensive sweep in Punjab’s Shahkot, Trinamool handsomely retaining the Maheshtala Assembly seat and the BJP’s severe loss of vote share in two Jharkhand seats, Kerala’s Chengannur and Karnataka’s Rajarajeshwari Nagar.

The Lok Sabha election of 2019 may well tell a different tale because PM Narendra Modi, the BJP’s sole vote-catcher, can be counted upon to invest all his might instead of leaving the battle to the local satraps, who have obviously been unable to deliver. Yet the fact that a candidate who wasn’t fielded in 2014 because of poor performance in her previous term as Kairana MP handsomely won the seat suggests that it wasn’t about the choice of the candidate. Rather, Gorakhpur, Phoolpur and Kairana show that opposition unity and a lower polling percentage have swung the caste and religion arithmetic away from the BJP in the crucial state of UP.

Another Lok Sabha polls which the BJP lost — Gondia-Bhandara in Maharashtra — has exposed the limits of poaching. The surprise resignation of the 2014 giant killer who had humbled Praful Patel and his joining the Congress had already put the BJP in a disadvantageous position. But the bottom-line in BJP’s tepid performance could be because the party was unable to move much beyond policy formulation on livelihood issues. It needs a wave again in the Hindi heartland, but the strategy may involve a Faustian bargain: focus more on bread and butter issues at the cost of its accent on religion.

(Tribune, Chandigarh)