A big challenge for Government’s survival in Rajasthan

JAIPUR (TIP): Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s big ‘No’ to contest the Congress President election, and Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s prerogative to decide the continuation of Gehlot as CM has left the running Rajasthan Government in lurch creating whirl of rumours and controversies in politics. 

The Rajasthan’s Congress government has already faced turmoil in 2020 following alleged horse trading by Opposition BJP when the Pilot group defected. Will it take any risk in its remaining tenure especially at a time when the toppling of governments by the BJP has become a recurring phenomenon in other states? Will the Congress find an alternative to Gehlot and replace him with Pilot who is favourite of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi?Pilot is right now a simpleMLA; how come he was invited by Mrs Gandhi to hold parleys on current turmoil in Rajasthan after Gehlot turned apology over his failure to hold CLP meeting and pass a one liner resolution?

 Beginning, Turns & U-turn

On his rising popularity index, open support to the Gandhi family and holding street protests in Delhi during interrogation by Enforcement Directorate, and an outspoken critic against the Modi government, the Congress decided in principle to field Ashok Gehlot, 71-year politician of Marwar and 3-timer CM, as next party president for which election process is underway. Gehlot felt elevated that he could be a leader to the party having136 years of glorious history that has given the best politicians in the country before and after Independence.

In just last 10 days Rajasthan has witnessed a lot of up and down in Congress politics. On September 20’s Congress Legislative Party meeting CM Gehlot had hinted that he could hold CM as well as contest Congress President post. On next day, September 21, when he returned from 10^th Janpath after revealing his plan to hold dual post, Gehlot was little depressed and told media, “It would be really difficult to hold two posts simultaneously. Will discuss with my MLAs.” Then on his mission to convince Rahul Gandhi, presently on Bharat Jodo Yatra, to accept the party post by contesting the election, Gehlot was stunned when RaGa reminded the nation on the formula of ‘One Man, One Post’ and party’s Udaipur declaration.

Gehlot had no option but to say, “Post is not a big deal for me, party can take my service in Delhi or Rajasthan.” Despite his frequently changed tone on President Post election nomination, Gehlot has openly assured the people in Rajasthan that till last breath of his life, he would not go away from Rajasthan whatever liability is there in future for him. “Main Thansu door Nahin hoon… I am present between you. I am not away from you; this I tell every time. I am with this state, and till my last breath,” he always maintained his love, affection and bond with Rajasthani life and style. Gehlot has strong bastion in Marwar specially Jodhpur division where people do not go away to find jobs and they commonly say, “Mahro Jodhpur ro kila dikhta rahana chahiye” (I will love to see my Jodhpur fort every moment and would not go hunting for a job outside).

Thick Soup

Earlier, amidst Rahul Gandhi’s denial to file nomination for the Congress President post, and Gehlot’s announcement to file his nomination papers and relinquishing his post, Sachin Pilot, young leader of Pilot brigade, was eyeing for the possible vacancy of CM Chair and started parleys with the party MLAs and held a long discussion with the Speaker Dr C P Joshi in latter’s chamber in Jaipur when the assembly was in the session. The day of conflict rose when the party high command called a fresh CLP meeting under the supervision of two-party observers at CM Residence on September 25. This was the turning point in the political history of Rajasthan when in a strong move to stop Pilot from becoming a CM before Gehlot’s filing nomination for the party President post, altogether ninety-two Congress MLAs including senior Ministers have en masse submitted their resignations to the Rajasthan Legislative Assembly Speaker Dr C P Joshi.This happened after three hours of high voltage drama at UDH and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Shanti Dhariwal’s residence where MLAs decided to quit if their three points demands are not fulfilled.

These annoyed MLAs want that the next CM should be picked from among the 102 Congress MLAs who stood firm by the party during the 35 days of crisis in 2020, and not from the MLAs who camped in Manesar (Haryana) with Pilot. Protesting MLAs desire that the party high command shall choose anyone from 102 MLAs as a new face of CM in Rajasthan. And all such move be initiated after the declaration of the Party President poll result on October 19.

Two Congress observers Mallikarjun Kharge, RS MP, and Ajay Makan, AICC General secretary failed to hold CLP meeting and left for Delhi. On their written report on Jaipur to Mrs Gandhi, two ministers Dr Mahesh Joshi (Chief Whip and Minister) and Dhariwal (Parliamentary Affairs) and RTDC Chairman Dharmendra Rathore were served ‘indiscipline notice’ and the party sought their replies within 10 days. However, the party high command gave a ‘clean chit’ to Gehlot. On Thursday afternoon Gehlot and Mrs Gandhi’s meeting at 10 Janpath turned into a hostile atmosphere as Gehlot vehemently told national media, “Because of the incident that happened in Jaipur when he could not convene the CLP meeting, it was my moral responsibility to pass a one liner resolution. I have decided that now I will not contest election (party President) in this environment. It is my decision.”

He who had tendered his verbal apology and said ‘sorry’ to Mrs Gandhi further replied to a question when asked whether he would continue to be CM of Rajasthan, “I will not take this decision… Sonia Gandhi will take decision…. Congress President will do it.”

Gehlot’s comments on CMship of Rajasthan further deepen the crisis when AICC General Secretary KCVenugopal said, “Sonia Gandhi will decide on the Rajasthan Chief Minister’s post within a day or two.”

Countdown begins for Rajasthan government!

Congress has now only two independent states of Rajasthan and Chattisgarh in the country where it is ruling for the fourth year, and the assembly polls are slated next year in December 2023. In case the Congress stipulating to replace Gehlot by favourite face Pilot, will it not be a political sequel of Punjab where Captain Amarinder Singh was sacked on the eve of assembly polls, and CM Charanjit Singh Channi and Navjyot Singh Siddhu (PCC President) could not return to power against AAP that had won an overwhelming majority. Ministers supporting Gehlot had already blamed the AICC General Secretary and in charge of Rajasthan Congress Ajay Maken for allegedly playing a conspiracy against Gehlot to favour Pilot as CM. At Congress’ Udaipur Nav Sanklap Shivir in May this year, the party has taken a number of pledges including the One Man, One Post, and No ticket to offspringof seniorpoliticians (MP, MLAs) in next election. Will the Congress party follow all promises made in Udaipur conclave?

This is for sure that Congress will get its new president. But the question remains will Rajasthan get a strong, acceptable, and reliable chief minister popular in 36-kaum (communities) like Ashok Gehlot? A million-dollar question is who will replace the three-time CM in Rajasthan? Whether the Congress high command accepts the recommendation of Gehlot for his successor? Or the leader from RaGa’s young brigade Sachin Pilot, the former deputy CM, gets a chance to rule the state for the next 14 months and lead the assembly elections slated in December 2023?

Pilot also ensured the support of his Gurjar community in a few eastern districts of Rajasthan where he travelled far and wide. However, getting open support of 110 MLAs, who are with Gehlot at present, will be a big challenge for him. Rajasthan’s political history never favoured any candidate for CM post from the Gurjar and Meen castes.

If rumours and media hype is to be believed, the name of Dr. C P Joshi, Assembly Speaker, is emerging as the next CM. He might even get a recommendation from Gehlot. Had Dr. Joshi, a Brahimin, not lost the Nathdwara assembly poll in 2008, he would have been the CM of the state in 2008 as there was no other contender, and the Congress party had no substitute to Gehlot. Joshi had to later take shelter under the AICC holding a few senior posts and was made in-charge of states. Joshi had also lost the 2014 LS poll from Jaipur-Rural seat. Even in the 2018 assembly election, Gehlot and Joshi had no parallel political equation. This is going to be a very crucial judgement whether to wait till the state assembly elections in three states including Gujarat held later this year or give an opportunity to Pilot who has been waiting in the wings for all. Before taking a decision on the vexed issue, the Congress has to bear in mind the outcome of its hasty decision to run the Punjab government after removal of Captain Singh as a result of which the party lost 2022 February assembly election to the Aam Aadmi Party.

Amidst all these developments, the state BJP leaders have kept an eagle’s eye on the goings-on in the state and will swoop on the party the moment it falters in its political game and provides them an opportunity. BJP state President Satish Poonia has given an open offer to Pilot in case of any fluid situation of strength to join his party.

           Though, Congress has 108 MLAs in the Rajasthan House of 200 legislators while the BJP has 71, RLP 3, BTP and CPM-2 each, RLD 1. Thirteen Independent MLAs are also supporting the Gehlot government. Indeed, it is going to be a big challenge and threat to the Congress high command as Gehlot having open support of 92 MLAs who tendered their resignations to the Speaker by rejecting the CLP meeting in presence of two observers. It is also going to be herculean task to replace Gehlot by anyone and threat to survival of running Congress government that has completed about four years.

(Goyal is also a Correspondent of The Statesman in Rajasthan)