By Arun Kumar

“The businessman-author of The Art of the Deal, who looks at every issue as a transaction, would also be in no hurry to tear up the Iran nuclear deal, Pompeo or no Pompeo. For him, threat is a negotiating tactic. So, India has little to lose sleep on this count”.

Washington is said to be in turmoil sending shock waves across the world from New York to New Delhi, with a mercurial President Donald Trump firing aides left and right and courting controversy with his fiats.

Will his new incoming hawkish National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has in the past advocated military strikes against both Iran and North Korea, push his boss into another war and upend the proposed summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un?

Or would CIA director Mike Pompeo, another hardliner set to replace moderate Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, spur the President to make good on his campaign promise to tear up the “disastrous” Iran nuclear deal forcing nations like India into yet another balancing act?

And would Trump’s imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs, essentially aimed at China, set off a trade war catching India in the crossfire?  Or perhaps the brash billionaire would implode in a clash of wills with special counsel Robert Mueller, former FBI director, probing alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and any collusion with the Trump campaign?

Or maybe the juicy tales of alleged dalliances with a porn star and a Playmate would finally prove the undoing of “The Donald”, as the first wife of the thrice married former reality TV star lovingly called him?

As pundits on either side of the political divide fill the airwaves with such kite flying, “There is no news anymore. It’s all Trump,” as noted TV host Larry King lamented ripping into TV channels going after eyeballs and newspapers savoring the circulation windfall.

With Trump setting the agenda, there is hardly any attempt to look at the issues dispassionately and give the devil his due. For instance, when the President ordered the expulsion 60 Russian diplomats in response to nerve agent attack on a former Soviet spy in Britain, Los Angeles Times, among others, had a different take.

“Trump quiet as US expels 60 suspected Russian spies,” read the Times’ headline, even as the liberal daily acknowledged lower down that it was the “most aggressive diplomatic slap down since the end of Cold War”.

Thus, contrary to instant analysts’ fears there is little danger of Trump, who in 2004 described the Iraq war as a “big fat mistake”, leading the US into another conflagration as his “America First” policy leaves no room for “regime change” or “nation building” abroad.

The businessman-author of The Art of the Deal, who looks at every issue as a transaction, would also be in no hurry to tear up the Iran nuclear deal, Pompeo or no Pompeo. For him, threat is a negotiating tactic. So, India has little to lose sleep on this count.

North Korea too would likely be a different story. Trump has often been painted as getting his strategic advice from TV shows, particularly Fox News, and influenced by the last man he sees before making up his mind. But contrary to conventional wisdom, the President keeps his own counsel. Witness the number of men who have been shown the door. These include Steve Bannon, his former chief strategist, who was once portrayed by influential Time on its cover as “The Great Manipulator” and “The second most powerful man in the world”.

Trump surprised the world by accepting an invitation for nuclear talks with Kim in May after trading childish barbs with the “little rocket man” about the size of their nuclear buttons as he threatened to respond with “fire and fury” to any provocations from Pyongyang.

Ahead of the crucial summit that he agreed to despite telling Tillerson that “our wonderful Secretary of State was wasting his time trying to negotiate” with Kim, Trump has scored his first victory on the tariff issue with South Korea.

Under the significant one-on-one deal, Seoul has agreed to limit its steel exports to the US and ease US auto imports. Pundits concede that Trump might well pull a rabbit out of his hat at the summit. Henry Kissinger, the legendary architect of Richard Nixon’s opening up to China, has endorsed the summit attributing it to Trump’s unique style. As he told the New York Times that it may not be what “we traditionalists would have recommended in the first place” but “it could restore a political initiative to us, and could compel a conversation with countries (who may not otherwise want one).”

During the presidential campaign, Trump had vowed to be a “true friend” to and “best friends” with India.

But that has not prevented him from slamming India’s “high” import duties on Harley-Davidson bikes. His administration has also taken India, which has a $24 billion trade surplus with the US, to the WTO, challenging export subsidies that benefit $7 billion Indian exports. But given Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bonhomie with Trump, they too could well work out a deal like South Korea.

Indians are also concerned about the Trump administration’s plans to restrict H-1B visas for professionals, which are largely cornered by Indians, and limiting visas to relatives to immediate family. But his plans to introduce a point-based merit system for immigration may well work to the advantage of Indians in the long run.

Other than that, thanks to bipartisan political support, Trump has continued to consolidate ties with India that have been growing stronger under three previous Presidents — Bill Clinton, George Bush and Barack Obama. As he told Modi last June, “The relationship between India and the United States has never been stronger, never been better.”

His national strategy unveiled last January also welcomes “India’s emergence as a leading power and stronger strategic and defense partner” as a counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific Region.

With the fight against terrorism emerging as an important area of convergence, the Trump administration also did something unprecedented in suspending security assistance to Pakistan after several warnings to Islamabad to stop supporting terrorists fell on deaf ears.

Indian interests may be safe in Trumpland, but the ongoing Russia probe has been hanging like a cloud on Trump with all his Russia-related actions viewed as suspect. He has been itching to fire Mueller to end what he deems as the “single greatest witch-hunt in American political history”.

Republican leaders have cautioned him against sparking a constitutional crisis by firing Mueller with Lindsey Graham, former Republican presidential rival turned supporter, warning that it would be “the beginning of the end of his presidency”.

But Trump being Trump, he may well do the unthinkable — and yet survive!

(The author is an expert on India-US relations)