The year 2023 will go down as a landmark year for India. There were singular achievements like the moon landing on the dark side and the brightness of an extremely successful G20 Summit. The effort to become a voice of the Global South was successful. Both the Global South Summits before and after the G20 summit revitalised Indian credentials. The success in bringing the African Union into the G20 through a hard-won consensus and ensuring that the interests of the developing countries were not lost sight of while countries grappled over the Ukraine crisis were indeed proud moments.
The signing of the India-Middle East-European Connectivity Corridor (IMEC) was a significant development, opening up huge possibilities to the west of India. The decision that India would host the Quad summit in 2024 added heft to India’s stature. Between the conclusion of the G20 Summit and the end of 2023, however, a dynamic time for the international order ensued. Nothing is static, and things often happen suddenly.
Four significant aspects during the last quarter of 2023 have a bearing on India’s policies as they head into 2024. First, the sudden attack by Hamas on Israel surprised many. It altered the dynamics of peace for economic development in the region. The focus on countering terror, humanitarian relief, and the re-emergence of deep-rooted animosities divided the world once again. A US area of dominance in which India was an important part now has China and Russia making inroads. Iran is an important player too. The power equations have altered, and question marks on the IMEC, US influence in the area, and the commitment of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the peace process now cause anxiety.
The Indian policy of countering terror and yet humanely supporting Palestine and seeking a two-state solution remains a conundrum. This is not India’s alone, since the US itself is similarly caught. Israel is unresponsive to US overtures. What is worse is that the Global South, which India stitched together developmentally, is now ruptured geopolitically. Not all South countries are on the same page regarding the Israel conflict, including the Arabs.
As India salvages the development agenda from the Ukraine crisis at the G20, now, a renewed effort to rescue it from the depredations of the Palestine issue and Hamas in West Asia is required. Secondly, is the climate crisis. The impact of changing climate leading to floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, cyclones, and the like is rising. While disaster management has improved, it has not curtailed the number of natural disasters. This impact of climate change requires greater capacity, both financial and human, to deal with resilience in the face of disaster and its risk mitigation. Indian efforts to nudge the Coalition for Disaster-Resilient Infrastructure ahead would now be tested.
Secondly, the Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP28) in Dubai revealed the fissures between oil-producing countries and green lobbies. The effort to nudge high coal consumers like India into phasing out continued. The dichotomy of holding a COP amidst oil-producing countries and then expecting to have restrictions on the use of fossil fuels was a foolhardy decision. It was not of India’s making, and India did well at COP28 in adopting a lower profile, protecting its interests in coal transition, rather than phasing out. India stuck to its hard-won gains at the G20 on renewable energy and had them included in the declaration.
However, there is no new money flowing in this direction even with the creation of a loss and damage fund. India would need to look at its partnership with other developing countries and introduce financing elements that would support the climate transition and the achievement of the SDGs, both of which are lagging severely behind their targets.
The third aspect is the Indo-Pacific. The Biden-Xi summit in San Francisco on the sidelines of the APEC in November tried to reduce the confrontation while keeping the competition and cooperation alive between the two. Cooperation was evident at COP28. China seems to have gotten the US to quieten down on Taiwan; Chinese aggression in the Philippines is becoming bolder, and the Philippines’ vessels are being interdicted from supplying their outposts on various shoals. This is no longer a cold conflict but a daily problem in the seas off the Philippines. The US is joining the Philippines in bold statements. Japan is offering the Philippines assistance under its new official security assistance. India is willing to provide more defence supplies to the Philippines and is not curtailing the visit of its warships on goodwill missions to the country. The heat expected around Taiwan is now actually testing resilience in the Philippines. ASEAN seems muted, and it remains to be seen what the Quad will do and what the tipping point would be if a Philippine vessel is sunk by Chinese action.
Fourthly, India would like the Quad to continue its ASEAN engagement. The Quad summit in 2024 would find practical means to implement the various ideas agreed upon.
The parallel Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which the US shepherded, is facing hiccups on the trade side in which India is not a partner. On other aspects, India, in particular, seeks a semiconductor supply chain with its Quad partners, as well as the critical minerals initiative. These would remain important aspects to pursue for India.
The year 2024 is election time for India and the US. Japanese elections are scheduled for 2025 but given the falling popularity of Kishida and problems within his own party, could well see a 2024 election. In Australia, the lower house election is due. Quad partners will look internally, and the Quad Summit is pushed to later in 2024. Quad collaboration below the summit level must continue enthusiastically and robustly.
The next step for India’s Global South credentials is to hold the long-delayed India Africa Forum Summit IV. It was due in 2020 and delayed by the pandemic. The African Union Commission was then busy with other delayed summits. India should work towards a functional IAFS IV summit rather than a big bang event. The agenda set at the G20 could be used to contemporise the India-Africa relationship, which is so well exemplified through the recent visits of the presidents of Tanzania and Kenya.
Source: Firstpost

(The writer, Gurjit Singh, is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal)