The incumbent Bhartiya Janata Party may have made tall claims regarding its performance in the upcoming assembly elections in Karnataka, but several pre-poll surveys and opinion polls have indicated the possibility of a hung assembly. Meanwhile, two networks have given BJP an edge over Congress, while two other networks have predicted a win for Congress.
Pre-poll survey results
The pre-election survey by TV9 and C-Voter predicts that the Congress will win 106–116 seats and the BJP between 79 and 89. The JD(S) is expected to emerge victorious in 24-34 constituencies. ‘Mood of Karnataka’ by Public TV also gave Congress the edge on 98-108 seats, which is below the majority mark of 113. As per the poll, BJP will win 85-95 seats in the state while JD(S) will win 28–33 seats.
The Asianet Survarna News Jan Ki Baat poll gives the BJP an edge over Congress, with the saffron party taking 98-109 seats against the Congress’s 89-97 seats.
The NewsFirst-Matrize poll predicted that the BJP would win 96–106 seats, while the Congress was predicted to win 84–94 and JD(S) to win 29–34.
A hung mandate is shown by Vistara News as it gave 88-93 seats to BJP, 84-90 to Congress, and 23-26 to JD(S). According to the survey, there are 27–30 seats where the outcome is uncertain. The pre-election survey by South First-People’s Pulse gave Congress 98 seats, with a range of 95 to 105 seats. The BJP is predicted to win 92 seats (90-100 seat range) and the JD(S) 27 seats (25-30 seat range).
Will JD(S) emerge as the Kingmaker?
If speculations about the hung verdict in Karnataka polls turn out to be true, JD(S) will have the chance to reemerge as the Kingmaker to form the government as it did in 2018. Currently, JD (S) is trying hard to get rid of the “family party” reputation under its leader HD Kumaraswamy.
However, there are some political analysts and members of the party who doubt JD(S) will achieve this goal. The party’s highest performance to date came in the 2004 assembly elections when it got 58 seats. The party put up its second-best performance in 2013 by registering victory on 40 seats.
Siddaramaiah Most Popular Choice For Karnataka Chief Minister: NDTV Survey
Congress leader Siddaramaiah is the most popular choice for the next Karnataka Chief Minister, and incumbent Basavaraj Bommai of the BJP ranks second, reveals “Public Opinion”, a special NDTV survey in partnership with Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
The survey seeks to gauge the public mood in Karnataka on a wide range of issues ahead of the May 10 state election and its verdict three days later.
Siddaramaiah, a former chief minister, is slightly more popular among older voters, while Mr Bommai, who is younger, is preferred by younger voters, the poll reveals.
Janata Dal Secular (JDS) leader HD Kumaraswamy is the third most popular chief minister candidate, followed by Congress’s DK Shivakumar.
The BJP’s BS Yediyurappa, a four-time chief minister who has never completed a term, ranks surprisingly low at number 5.
Yediyurappa, who was Chief Minister until the BJP replaced him with Mr Bommai in 2021 amid corruption allegations, is not contesting the election and has also denied that he is in the running for the top job.
But how important is the chief minister candidate when people vote? Not as much as party or candidate, the NDTV-CSDS survey reveals.
A majority of respondents said they gave more importance to the party (56%) and 38% said they vote for the candidate. Only 4% said they vote according to the chief minister face.
It is voters who support the Congress or JDS who mostly consider party as the biggest factor. BJP voters, however, are divided.
The Congress fares better than the BJP when it comes to voters’ perception on key metrics, the survey reveals.
More respondents (59%) saw the BJP as more corrupt than the Congress (35%) and JDS (3%).
Unexpectedly for a party that has campaigned nationwide against dynasty politics, the BJP is rated “more nepotistic” (59%) than the Congress (30%) and JDS (8%).
The ruling party is also seen to be blighted more by factionalism (55%) than the Congress (30%) and JDS (12%).
In a positive for the Congress, more respondents have ranked it the best for Karnataka’s development (47% vs BJP’s 37% and JDS’ 14%) and for maintaining communal harmony (49% vs BJP’s 34% and JDS’ 14%).
On handling the Karnataka-Maharashtra border row, the BJP and Congress share equal rating (40%) with the JDS placing third (14%).
The NDTV survey also tried to gauge how different castes and communities are likely to vote.
The Vokkaligas are split between the Congress (34%) and JDS (36%) while the Lingayats remain firmly with the BJP (67%). Muslims (59%) are more inclined to vote for the Congress.
In March, the Karnataka government scrapped the 4% backward class quota for Muslims and diverted it to Lingayats — traditional supporters of the BJP – and Vokkaliggas. Their quotas have been raised to 7% and 6%.
The survey also assesses the anti-incumbency factor. Disapproval of the BJP government is more among the poor, the lower middle class and rural voters, the data shows.
The NDTV-CSDS survey reveals that the Congress is more popular (50%) with poor voters than the BJP (23%). Among affluent voters, however, the BJP (46%) remains more popular than the Congress (31%). Voters were also asked to rate the public outreach of various parties. The BJP scores slightly more than the Congress and JDS in reaching out to voters, the survey found. Rahul Gandhi‘s Bharat Jodo Yatra drew slightly more attention than the BJP’s Vikas Sankalp Yatra and the JDS’ Pancharatna Ratha Yatra, according to the ‘Public Opinion’ survey. However, the BJP and JDS registered more participation in their yatras.
Source: NDTV
Pre-poll surveys herald hung verdict; will JDS emerge as kingmaker?
