“Modi has failed so far.  It is possible that between now and the election, Modi will wake up and execute political skills of Kautilya.    I must say it is too early to make any predictions.  In six months, there could be big changes.  Will Modi use his vision and modernize India?”

 

“However, I would give him only B for his government”, says the author.

Prime Minister Modi will be facing voters in India’s General Election six months from now. It is therefore timely to evaluate his success and failure and give him a suitable grade.  Modi started off with new energy and enthusiasm.  Though BJP alone received only 31% support, he was able to convince others to join him.  Thus, he was able to form the government with a large mandate from the people.  The expectations were high, and the results speak for themselves.   However, I would give him only B for his government.

MODI’S POLITICAL SKILLS ARE A+ IN CAMPAIGNING AND GETTING ELECTED

Modi has charisma. His political skills have delivered him huge success in the elections and delivered mandate.    Unfortunately, he has not been able to transform his success to governing.  One gets the impression that he is operating in a vacuum.  We also get the impression that the all powerful Indian bureaucracy retains control and fails to implement his policies.  Modi has failed to beef up the Office of the Prime Minister, equivalent to the White House in the USA.   Will Modi take action to win the corrupt and powerful bureaucracy.   I must point out that the Indian bureaucracy is very powerful, and no Prime Minister can govern and rule India without its cooperation.  Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Vajpayee had powerful and most competent Principal Secretary to Prime Minister.  P.N. Haksar delivered Bangladesh to Indira Gandhi.  Brajesh Mishra emboldened the Office of Prime Minister Vajpayee.  He was the architect behind the nuclear test, that was kept as secret even from the C.I.A.  He also established a direct pipeline with the Bush White House.  If Modi selects a topnotch bureaucrat with reputation and competence, it will go a long way to streamline Modi’s policies.

MODI’S ACHIEVEMENTS

It was reported last week that India’s GDP is growing at 8.2%.  This is a great news on the eve of the general election.  Indian stock market has gone up from 25000 to 38000.  390 million have access to internet. India is fortunate that 50% of its population is under 25 and 2/3rds under 35.  This is a huge asset for India.   When every major country is getting older and older, India is the only country getting younger and younger.  Educated and developed population is an asset.  Modi must capitalize on this strength.   India has invested $15 billion in the USA and continue to invest.  But the US has invested in India only $20 billion during the same period.  India must deregulate and encourage foreign private investment.    Modi has enabled issuance of visas online helping the tourists and businessmen. These days we do not hear of complaints from visa/passport applicants in the USA – Modi changed it for better.

FAILURE TO MODERNIZE INDIA

India has been unable to deliver water and electricity for 24/7 to all its people.  It has failed to build mass transportation in Mumbai, Hyderabad, Chennai.   New Delhi metro system seems to be working efficiently.  It is taking too long to build mass transportation in Bangalore.  The subway system in Calcutta is inadequate.  India has built most modern airports in New Delhi, Bombay, Hyderabad, Bangalore, and Calcutta.

There is no system in India to remove garbage.  Modi delivered toilets but there is no sewerage system.

There are more vehicles than the roads everywhere.  As a result, the traffic does not move.  This contributes to economic waste of valuable time.  Time is money.

The courts have too many backlogs resulting in justice delayed or denied.

Failure to build modern infrastructure has impacted on manufacturing, shortage of housing, and loss of export business.  India is unable to accept orders to deliver 100 million under wears unlike China.

MODI’S RELATIONS WITH THE MINORITIES NOT LAUDABLE

The Sikhs and the Christians may be small in number.  But they are highly educated and economically well to do.  They are also a source of foreign exchange.   Modi has failed to develop satisfactory relations with these minorities.    The U.A.E. offered $200 million to Kerala victims of floods, but Modi government rejected it. Why?  Is he not spiting Kerala, not governed by BJP?

India has the second largest Muslim population in the world.  Indian Muslims are peace loving.  The BJP has not treated them with the respect they command.  Beef is banned from the restaurants.  Muslims are punished for killing cows.  But India is a leading exporter of meat, primarily buffalo meat, deriving $5 billion in foreign exchange.  If it is o.k. to slaughter cows for export why it does not apply for domestic consumption.

MODI MAKES GOOD IMPRESSION ON FOREIGN LEADERS BUT FAILS TO TRANSFORM THE RELATIONSHIP

Modi visited the USA, UK, Canada, Australia and others and created most favorable relationships.  He addressed huge rallies of Non-Resident Indians.   On his return to India, he has been unable to transform the goodwill and solid relationship into meaningful policies.   Because he has no link with the mighty Indian bureaucracy, nothing gets implemented.  Lack of strong Principal Secretary to Prime Minister is the main cause of his failure.

FAILURE TO FOLLOW KAUTILYA’S PRINCIPLE – KING MUST BE FEARED AND LOVED.

Modi is not feared. Modi has been unable to formulate dynamic and meaningful political and foreign policy strategies.   He started off well by inviting the heads of all South Asian neighbors including Pakistan.  Here again, there was no follow up.  During Modi’s term, China has encircled India by dominating its power and influence in Nepal, Maldives Islands, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Sikkim and Bangladesh.  India should not have allowed China to interfere in the coastal waters of India – Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.  The US, Japan, Australia, S. Korea had offered joint naval exercises, but India has not taken full advantages.  Instead, India has joined naval exercises with China, Pakistan and Russia!

INDIA NEEDS ACCESS TO LATEST TECHNOLOGIES. WILL MODI EMBRACE TRUMP’S OFFER?

Technology is the ultimate weapon that wins modern wars, not large army.  India was shut off from the Western technology for over 30 years till President George W Bush gave India civil nuclear deal.  The US Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense are now in India for 2+2 talks.  Trump has offered India relationship on a par with its closest allies.  The offer was made six months ago and if Modi were a master strategist and followed Kautilya he could have solidified the closest strategic relationship with the superpower, USA.  Modi is forgetting that relations with others such as Russia and Iran should be secondary.  Hope Modi will not miss the big picture and conclude the deal with the Americans.   Agreeing to close strategic relationship with the USA will prevent China from its adventures in South Asia.  The US also has decided to support and finance several developing countries to prevent domination by China.

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES FOR MODI TO GET REELECTED?

In U.P. Modi’s performance was par excellence grabbing almost 100%.  But in his own Gujarat, BJP barely won, and this was shocking.  Why did this happen?  The Congress Party gave him a shock.   Modi is not in power in many important States – West Bengal, Punjab, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and others.  Modi has failed to privatize public sector corporations. He has not sold even the loss-stricken Air India.  Skilled politician should be able to negotiate with the opposition be it Rajya Sabha or important States where his party is not in power.   The fact remains that has failed in 4-1/2 years to consolidate and influence.  Who influences whom, when, where and how is the essence of politics.  Modi has failed so far.  It is possible that between now and the election, Modi will wake up and execute political skills of Kautilya.    I must say it is too early to make any predictions.  In six months, there could be big changes.  Will Modi use his vision and modernize India?

(The author is Diplomat-in-Residence and Senior Adviser to Imagindia Institute, New Delhi; Chairman, Asian American Republican Committee, Scarsdale, N.Y. He can be reached at vpwaren@gmail.com)