NEW YORK  (TIP):  In the race to replace disgraced Former Republican Congressman George Santos, former Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi is ahead in his quest to return to Washington, according to a new PIX11/Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday, January 18. Suozzi, who represented New York’s 3rd Congressional District for three terms before an unsuccessful run for governor, got the support of 45% of those surveyed. Republican nominee Mazi Pilip, a Nassau County legislator and an Israeli-American who once served in Israel’s Defense Forces, got support from 42% of those surveyed. About 9% of NY-3 voters are undecided.

NY-3 is comprised mostly of Nassau County with a little bit of eastern Queens.

The special election is set for Feb. 13, with early voting beginning Feb. 3. Suozzi’s advantage in the poll swells when you look at “very likely” voters who were surveyed.  They comprise about 84% of the survey and are crucial in special elections, which often see a low turnout. Suozzi had support from 51% of “very likely” voters and Pilip got 37%.

There is not an overwhelmingly clear top issue for NY-3 voters. About 26% of voters said immigration was their top concern, 22% said the economy and 15% said crime.

Abortion access, an issue that generally favors Democrats, was only at 4%. Abortion rights are protected by law in New York; however, the special election in this swing district is widely viewed through a national lens and Democrats are focused on abortion since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Another red flag for Democrats is the approval of President Joe Biden in NY-3. The poll found only 33% of those surveyed approve of the job he is doing.

Drilling down on the issues, most NY-3 voters are in favor of continued foreign aid to support two major conflicts abroad: 60% favor continued support of Israel in its war in Gaza and 51% support continuing to help Ukraine with the Russian invasion.

On the migrant crisis, there is a plurality of NY-3 voters who would like to see the federal government foot the bill. Of those surveyed, 45% said the federal government needs to pay back New York for the cost of supporting migrants; 18% said it should be a mix of New York City, Texas — which is doing the busing from the border — and the federal government; 14% said this city should be handling this on its own.

PIX11 News will host a special one-hour forum featuring NY-3 candidates Suozzi and Pilip on Tuesday, Jan. 30, from 7 to 8 p.m. You can tune in to PIX11 News or stream the forum on PIX11.com and PIX11+, which is available on Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Apple TV, and Samsung.

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11 New York Third District poll was conducted January 13-15, 2024. The sample consisted of 975 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on US Census parameters, and New York voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (NY SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of cellphones via MMS-to-web, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

(Source: PIX 11)