RAJKOT (TIP): With curtains down on electioneering for the first phase of the Gujarat Assembly polls, a close contest seems likely between the BJP and Congress, which probably mounted the most spirited campaign against the ruling party in over two decades.

The pre-poll estimation of the Congresss grassroots level managers is that that the party stands a good chance of winning more seats this time compared to its 2012 tally of 61 in the 182-member Assembly. The saffron party, ruling the state for over 19 years now, had romped home bagging 115 seats.

The BJP, however, is dismissive of the Congresss optimism, insisting it would come out with flying colours on the strength of the performance of its successive governments.

In the absence of any leader with pan- Gujarat appeal, both contenders to power heavily relied on the charisma of their national leaders in an attempt to swing votes in their favour.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi powered the high-pitch BJP campaign, assisted by party chief Amit Shah, considered a master strategist after a string of electoral victories the party registered under him, the Congresss fight was led by a manifestly transformed Rahul Gandhi, who looked more sure- footed and less tentative.

Rahul Gandhi spearheaded the Congresss campaign at a time when the party has been out of power in the key western state for 22 years now, and days before he steps into the shoes of his mother Sonia Gandhi, who helmed the grand old party for 19 years.

A BJP victory will consolidate Modis position even further and would be seen as an endorsement of his governments reform measures, including the GST and note ban, while a win for the Congress will kindle hopes of its revival after debilitating electoral reverses state after state.

A defeat for BJP in Modi and Shahs home state, observers feel, may catalyse formation of a broad-based anti-NDA secular front ahead of the 2019 general elections.

In the first phase on December 9, a total of 89 assembly seats spread over Saurashtra and South Gujarat regions will go to the polls.

There are 977 candidates in the fray. The BJP started off its campaign blitzkrieg with Modi has its pivot and the catchline–Hu Chu Vikas, Hu Chu Gujarat (I am Vikas (development), I am Gujarat). The Congress targeted the ruling party over the very same issue of development, claiming in Gujarat “vikas gando thayo che (development has gone crazy).”

The Congresss optimism, apart from the possiblity of anti-incumbency factor working in its favour, also stems from it having secured the support of three young caste leaders– Patidar quota stir spearhead Hardik Patel, OBC leader Alpesh Thakor and Dalit activist Jignesh Mewani–ahead of the elections.

While Patel has extended his Patidar Anamat Andolan Samitis support to the Congress, Thakor has already joined the party, and Mewani, who is contesting the Vadgam seat, is being backed by the Congress. All these leaders shot into prominence while leading agitations for their caste groups in the post-Modi Gujarat.

Many feel the BJP held sway over Gujarat, particularly after Modi took over the reins of power in the communally sensitive state, owing to the consolidation of Hindu votes in its favour.

The emergence of caste leaders on Gujarats political firmament may somewhat dent the the Hindu support base of the saffron party.

On the rise of caste politics in the state, where the BJP has been highlighting its model of development, Gaurang Jani, a sociologist, said it was because the issues faced by these groups had not been properly addressed. Source: PTI