New Delhi (TIP)- A cliffhanger in Chhattisgarh with an edge for the Congress. A fierce battle in Madhya Pradesh with two surveys predicting a landslide for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). A closer-than-expected clash in Rajasthan, which has voted out the incumbent every time in the last 25 years. A neck-and-neck contest in Telangana between the challenger Congress and the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS). And a hung assembly in Mizoram with a regional outfit likely emerging as kingmaker.
These were the broad takeaways from a clutch of exit polls released on Thursday, Nov 30, after the close of the five-state assembly elections that are widely seen as a virtual semi-final for the Lok Sabha polls scheduled to be held next summer. The results will be announced on Sunday, Dec 3. The exit polls largely converged on the outcomes in Telangana and Chhattisgarh but varied wildly in the crucial heartland states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In Mizoram, the polls predicted that the battle was largely between the ruling Mizo National Front and the Zoram People’s Movement, with the Congress likely a distant third.
The outcome of the polls in five states — the last major electoral exercise before 2024 — will have significant impact on both the political narratives in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls. It will also shape the dynamics with the 28-party Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which was forged just weeks before the polls were announced.
Three of the five states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — also featured bipolar contests between the BJP and the Congress, presenting an opportunity to test the strengths of the two national parties that will go head to head in nearly a third of all Lok Sabha seats next year.
In Madhya Pradesh, the largest state to go to the polls, a majority of exit polls predicted an intense battle between the ruling BJP and the Congress — two gave the edge to the Congress, one to the BJP and two forecast a dead heat. But two other prominent surveys — IndiaToday-AxisMyIndia and Today’s Chanakya-News 24 were the outliers, predicting a sweep for the BJP and a decimation for the Congress.
The BJP has ruled the state for 18 of the last 20 years, and the party fielded a bevy of senior ministers and parliamentarians, in addition to talking about its welfare outreach and chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s image. The Congress had focussed on anti-incumbency and corruption allegations against Chouhan.
Soon after the exit polls, Chouhan said the results of the elections will be “unexpected and unprecedented”. “I said this at a lot of places that the kind of support we are getting from women of our state, the results will be unexpected and unprecedented. I had said that the way we were getting love of sisters and daughters, the result would be unprecedented. We will win handsomely,” he said.
In neighbouring Rajasthan, where chief minister Ashok Gehlot was attempting to buck the state’s political tradition, a majority of exit polls predicted that the BJP was coming back to power with anywhere between a narrow and a comfortable majority. But IndiaToday-AxisMyIndia and Today’s Chanakya-News 24 both predicted a squeaker with the Congress marginally ahead.
The Congress had banked on the Gehlot government’s welfare agenda and a public rapprochement between the CM and his former deputy, senior leader Sachin Pilot. The BJP, on the other hand, was dependent on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and anti-incumbency.
Congress leader Mahesh Joshi said, “I am a confident that Congress will retain the government in Rajasthan as there is pro-incumbency for the government. We will get clear mandate and form the government. We have served the people of Rajasthan with commitment. Our budget focused on people development.”
The BJP, however, appeared confident of wresting power from the Congress. Party MLA Vasudev Devnani said, “The exit polls made it clear that the BJP is going to form a government with full majority. The result of five out of seven exit polls came in our favour. This is the victory of Rajasthan and its public. Congress might keep their hope alive over the result of the one exit poll. But I can assure that the BJP will achieve an even better result in the final counting day on Dec 3.”
In Chhattisgarh, where the Congress trounced the BJP in a landslide in 2018, the contest was seen as more evenly poised. Five exit polls predicted a furious fight between the two national parties with the Congress inching ahead. Three others forecast that chief minister Bhupesh Baghel was comfortably set for a second straight term.
In the tribal-dominated state, the Congress had campaigned on its paddy procurement scheme and other welfare programmes, with the BJP attacking Baghel over corruption allegations. Reacting to Thursday’s exit polls, Congress leader and Chhattisgarh deputy CM TS?Singhdeo said, “Exit polls is the guess work by television channels. I always take them with a pinch of salt. I am confident of overwhelming Congress win. Let’s wait for the results on December 3.”
In Telangana, the only southern state to go to the polls in this round, every exit poll predicted that the Congress — which created the province while it was in power at the Centre in 2014 — was set to displace the BRS that has ruled the state since its inception. Three exit polls even said that the Congress would get a simple majority of its own while others predicted that it will likely emerge as the single-largest party.
The Congress, which was decimated in the 2018 polls and ended up around 20 percentage points in vote share behind the BRS, ran an energetic campaign led by state unit chief Revanth Reddy who attacked the BRS over corruption and anti-incumbency. Chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, on the other hand, underlined his welfare outreach and the raft of schemes that the state government operationalised over the last decade.