New Delhi (TIP)- The summer months of March to May are likely to be hotter than usual across most of the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, March 1, while also predicting El Nino conditions to persist for most of this period, which could in turn result in a higher number of heatwave days.
Some regions, however, including the northwest that includes Delhi, could record normal to below normal night-time lows and daytime peaks, especially over the first 15 days of March when a series of western disturbance are predicted to bring rain in these regions.
IMD customarily puts out a forecast for the summer season in the first week of March every year, with the temperatures in the 12-week period from then having significant implications for public health and agriculture. For instance, unusually hot weather or excessive spells of rain in March could hurt a number of winter crops that are close to harvest in April and May.
“We are expecting maximum temperatures to remain below normal till around March 15 over northwest India. This is mainly because we are expecting cloudy skies and rainfall due to consecutive WDs,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
The rain spells, Mohapatra added, could hurt some crops. “During the next two weeks we expect intense rain and even hailstorm in some regions of northwest India. That can be damaging for the wheat crop. Light to moderate rain will be beneficial in some areas. Farmers have been advised to prepare,” he said.
But after that, temperatures are likely to pick up for most parts of the country due to the El Nino phenomenon in the equatorial pacific, which has cascading impact on weather across the world.
“El Nino conditions have weakened but they are still prevailing and expected to continue till May. El Nino is associated with above normal number of heatwave days also. So, we can expect a hot summer,” added Mohapatra.
The 12 weeks of the beginning of the summer will also coincide with hectic political activity with large gatherings across the country in campaign rallies as it heads into general elections, which will culminate with the last of the voting roughly around the first week of May. Heatwaves could potentially be a cause for concern in many parts.
The summer season is classified from March to end of May, before the monsoon season officially starts from June.
The IMD director general said that of late, the transition from winter to summer temperatures has been quicker than usual. “We have observed that spring is arriving early. It is because winter is diffusing sooner than before. A milder winter end is nothing but spring. This is being seen globally due to global warming,” said Mohapatra.
According to Friday’s forecast, above-normal maximum/day temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except over some isolated areas of northwest, northeast, central and peninsular India. The minimum or night time temperatures are also likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, IMD said.
Monthly maximum temperatures for March will be likely to be above normal over most areas of peninsular, northeast and west central India. Night time temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except some isolated areas along the Himalayas where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are most likely in March, IMD added.
The weather department has also warned that above-normal number of heatwave days are likely over most parts of the country except over northeast India, western himalayan region, southwest peninsula and west coast during March to May.
The IMD forecast went into some detail on the El Nino phenomenon, saying that majority of climate models gave indicated it will persist through March-May 2024 and then transition to ENSO-neutral thereafter.
Source: HT