On July 18, elected MLAs and MPs across the country will vote to elect India’s 15th President. Under Article 62(1) of the Constitution, “an election to fill a vacancy caused by the expiration of the term of office of President shall be completed before the expiration of the term”. President Ram Nath Kovind’s tenure ends on July 24. The counting of votes will take place on July 21 and the new president will take oath on July 25.

The notification for the presidential election has been issued on June 15 and the last day of filing a nomination will be June 29. The papers will be scrutinised on June 30. The last day to withdraw the nomination papers will be July 2.

“The Election Commission, in consultation with the Central Government, appoints the Secretary General of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, by rotation, as the Returning Officer,” the EC said.

“Accordingly, the Secretary General, Rajya Sabha will be appointed as the Returning Officer for the present election to the Office of the President,” it added.

Here’s the process of electing a President

According to Article 55 of the Constitution, the President of India is elected by members of the Electoral College consisting of elected Members of Parliament and that of all the state assemblies including the National Capital Territory of Delhi and the Union Territory of Puducherry. It follows the system of proportional representation utilising a single transferable vote system and secret ballots.

Nominated members of Parliament, state assembly and members of legislative council are not eligible to vote.

Importantly, the members who are nominated to either House of Parliament or the Legislative Assemblies of State including NCT of Delhi and UT of Puducherry are not eligible to be included in the Electoral College.

This year, a total of 776 Members of Parliament and 4,033 MLAs will vote in the Presidential elections. The total value of votes is 10,86,431. The value of votes of MLAs is 5,43,231 and MPs are 5,43,200.

Who is eligible?

To be eligible for the election, the person: must be a citizen of India; have completed the age of 35 years; and is qualified for election as a member of the House of the People (Article 58).

The person will not be eligible if he/she holds any office of profit under the Government of India or the Government of any State or under any local or other authority that is controlled by any of the state governments.

What’s the process?

The process starts with the nomination. The Presidential candidate should get his nomination paper subscribed by at least 50 electors as proposers and at least 50 electors as seconders. Importantly, the elector should not subscribe to more than one nomination paper either as a proposer or as a seconder. The candidate is required to deposit security, which is Rs 15,000. It is supposed to be made along with the nomination paper. More than four nomination papers can not be filed by or on behalf of a candidate or received by the Returning Officer.

Where does the voting take place?

Voting for the Presidential election will take place in Parliament and the premises of state assemblies, while Rajya Sabha Secretary-General will be the returning officer. MPs cast their vote in Parliament and MLAs in their respective state assemblies.

Process of voting

The election follows proportional voting which means that the value of each vote varies as it based on the post. The value of each vote based on the population is also predetermined for an MLA vote. This year, the total number of electors for the election will be 4,809 – 776 MPs and 4,033 MLAs.

Who will be India’s next President?

India’s President does not exercise executive powers, but all executive decisions are carried out in her name. She is required by the Constitution to act on the advice of the council of ministers led by the Prime Minister.

But the President can ask the government to reconsider actions and offer advice. In matters of legislation, for example. So, it would be wrong to say that the role is only ceremonial or that the President is a mere figurehead or rubber stamp. Presidents like Pranab Mukherjee have been quite assertive, especially while dealing with mercy petitions from death row convicts. One of the most crucial roles of the President is seen when no party is able to get a parliamentary majority in a national election.

So, the presidential election is crucial, and you should care about it. The election is indirect, but the result does indicate how much popular support both camps, the government and the opposition, have in the country.

On your mind could be several key questions, from the poll process to front-runners to the numbers game, and to possible scenarios. But first let’s get some important dates out of our way.

The President is elected by members of the Electoral College comprising elected members of both Houses of Parliament, and elected members of the Legislative Assemblies of all states and the National Capital Territory of Delhi and the Union Territory of Puducherry.

This means nominated members of the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha or Legislative Assemblies of states are not part of the Electoral College. Similarly, members of Legislative Councils also do not participate in the election process.

The value of votes of MPs and MLAs varies based on the population of states they come from.

It is mandatory for 50 MPs to propose the candidate, followed by another 50 seconding the candidature.

Polling will be held in the Parliament House and on the premises of the State Legislative Assemblies.

The election is held by secret ballot. A single transferable vote is used per the system of proportional representation.

On the ballot paper, there are two columns. The names of candidates are listed in the first column, and the order of preference is listed in the second column.

THE NUMBERS GAME

The Electoral College has 4,809 electors, including 776 Members of Parliament (MPs) and 4,033 Members of Legislative Assemblies (MLAs).

The total value of votes will be 10,86,431. To win, a candidate must get at least 5,43,216 votes.

In the last election in 2017, Ram Nath Kovind of the NDA defeated joint Opposition candidate Meira Kumar. Kovind polled 7,02,000 votes compared with Kumar’s 3,67,000, out of a total of 10,69,358 votes.

Roughly speaking, the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 48 per cent of the votes this time. It is 23 per cent for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

So, the NDA should not have any problem in getting its candidate elected. But the contest will become tight if all non-BJP parties unite (this explains hectic consultations on both sides). Then the opposition will have about 51 per cent of the votes.

This is unlikely. Some reports say that “independents” such as Andhra Pradesh’s ruling YSRCP and Odisha’s ruling BJD may support the NDA. The BJP’s Tamil Nadu ally, the AIADMK, may also do so.

The BJP has authorised its party president JP Nadda and Union minister Rajnath Singh to hold consultations with constituents of the NDA and the UPA, besides other political parties, as well as independent members. A consensus candidate is always preferable.

PROBABLE CANDIDATES

The general impression is that the BJP is unlikely to re-nominate Kovind. Rajendra Prasad was the only President to get two full terms. Both camps have not named their candidates yet. But that does not mean we’re short of suggestions. Former West Bengal Governor and Mahatma Gandhi’s grandson, Gopalkrishna Gandhi, has been approached by some leaders to be a joint Opposition candidate. He is the Left’s suggestion. There is talk about NCP chief Sharad Pawar exploring the possibility of pushing dissident Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad as the Opposition nominee. On the other hand, NDA probables may include Kerala Governor Mohammad Arif Khan, former Jharkhand Governor and tribal leader from Odisha Draupadi Murmu, Chhattisgarh Governor and tribal leader Anusuiya Uikey, Telangana Governor Tamilsai Soundararajan, Karnataka Governor and Dalit leader Thawar Chand Gehlot, former Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan, and Odisha’s tribal leader Jual Oram

A disclaimer: The BJP remains capable of surprising everyone, like when it nominated APJ Abdul Kalam in 2002. The name of TMC leader Yashwant Sinha (though Bengal’s ruling party TMC has indicated none of its own members will be a candidate) is also being talked about. Earlier reports said that the Congress, the TMC, the AAP and the Shiv Sena wanted Pawar to be the opposition’s candidate, but he has declined the offer.

JD(U) leader and Bihar minister Shravan Kumar has said party chief and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar could be a good candidate. Maharashtra minister and NCP spokesperson Nawab Malik has said Kumar’s candidature as an opposition choice can be considered if the latter snaps ties with the BJP/NDA in Bihar. On his part, Nitish Kumar has clarified that he never wanted to, and will not, contest the President’s election.

CRACKS IN OPPOSITION

Cracks have appeared in the opposition camp. The Congress is currently preoccupied with rallying support for its leader Rahul Gandhi, being questioned by the Enforcement Directorate in the National Herald money-laundering case.

Actually, there is no one opposition camp. There is the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). But that’s mostly the Congress with non-ruling allies like the RJD of Bihar. The Congress rules Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and is a junior partner in states such as Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu.

West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC leader Mamata Banerjee has met Sharad Pawar, whose party NCP is part of Maharashtra’s ruling coalition MVA, led by the Shiv Sena and also comprising the Congress. Banerjee is trying to bring everyone on a single platform but Congress, while attending consultations driven by her, does not want to be overshadowed by a former Congresswoman. The grand old party is also holding its own meetings.

The Left is not happy with Banerjee’s “unilaterally” organised deliberations. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP (which is also ruling Punjab) has been a Congress critic and cautious of Banerjee in matters of national politics. On the other hand, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao of TRS has his own ambitions.

The Congress has asked its leader Mallikarjun Kharge to hold talks with all like-minded parties on the possibility of fielding a joint candidate. Kharge met NCP chief Sharad Pawar at the latter’s residence in Mumbai on June 9.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi has herself reached out to Opposition leaders, including DMK chief MK Stalin, Pawar, CPM’s Sitaram Yechury. Banerjee and Telangana CM K Chandrashekar Rao, both non-UPA leaders, have also met leaders of the MVA. On June 15, Banerjee held a meeting with Opposition leaders in Delhi where no one from the AAP, the TRS and the BJD came despite invitations. Those who attended the meeting convened to prepare a joint strategy included Pawar, PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti, NC’s Omar Abdullah and SP’s Akhilesh Yadav, besides some Congress leaders including Kharge.

Looks like a fractured opposition may again end up helping the BJP in an important election. Unless, of course, the mirage of oft-cited total opposition unity finally becomes a reality.