New Delhi (TIP)- The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may win absolute majority in both the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, with Congress coming second in both states, says India TV-Matrize opinion poll.  According to the opinion poll, BJP may win a huge majority of 119 seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, while Congress may win 59 seats and Aam Aadmi Party may win only three seats. In 2017 assembly elections, BJP had won 99 seats, Congress had won 81 seats and ‘Others’ had won two seats. Voting percentage wise, the opinion poll says, BJP may get 51.3 per cent, Congress 37.2 pc, and AAP may get only 7.2 pc votes. In 2017 assembly elections, BJP had got 48.8 pc votes, Congress 42.3 pc and ‘Others’ 8.9 per cent votes.

Region wise

In Central Gujarat having 61 seats, BJP may get 43, Congress 17 seats and AAP nil. In Saurashtra-Kutch having 54 seats, BJP may get 32 seats, Congress may get 20 seats and AAP may get only two seats. In South Gujarat having 35 seats, BJP may get 27, Congress may get 7 seats, and AAP only one seat. In North Gujarat having 32 seats, BJP may get 17 seats, Congress 15 seats and AAP nil.

The sample size taken in India TV-Matrize opinion poll was 91,000 respondents (54,600 males and 36.400 females) spread in 182 assembly constituencies of Gujarat. The Random Sampling Quantitative Data Collection was done from October 15 to November 2, with at least 500 samples from each constituency. The margin of error being plus/minus 5 per cent.

The opinion poll shows, BJP may get 48 pc scheduled caste votes, 49 pc scheduled tribe votes, 58 pc Kadwa Patel votes, 53 pc Leuva Patel votes, 52 pc OBC votes, 48 pc upper caste Hindu votes and 14 pc Muslim votes. Congress may get 41 pc SC votes, 42 pc ST votes, 34 pc Kadwa Patel votes, 37 pc Leuva Patel votes, 39 pc OBC votes, 41 pc upper caste Hindu votes, and 62 pc Muslim votes.

On Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel’s performance, 31 pc said ‘very good’, 38 pc said ‘average’ and 29 pc said ‘very poor’. Asked whether they wanted change, 32 pc said they were unhappy and wanted change, 44 pc said they were unhappy but wanted no change, while 22 per cent said, they were happy and do not want change.  Price rise remained the topmost issues for voters with 28 per cent, Unemployment came second with 22 pc, Basic facilities emerged the third issue with 16 pc, and Corruption the fourth issue with nine per cent.

 Will Narendra Modi become the game changer in elections, 42 per cent said ‘Yes’, 33 per cent said ‘To some extent’, and 21 pc said, ‘it won’t affect’. Asked who will form the government, 66 per cent said ‘BJP’, 28 per cent said ‘Congress, and only two per cent said ‘AAP’.  Asked whose election campaign will have maximum effect, 64 per cent said Narendra Modi, 22 per cent said Rahul Gandhi and only eight per cent said Arvind Kejriwal.  What will save BJP from anti-incumbency? To this question, 46 per cent said Narendra Modi, 21 per cent said change of non-performing MLAs, 12 pc said better election management, 7 pc said strong candidates, and 6 pc said ‘poll promises’.

 Himachal Pradesh

In the 68-seat Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, BJP may retain power by winning 41 seats, Congress may win 25 seats and ‘Others’ may win two seats. In 2017 elections, BJP had won 44 seats, Congress had won 21 and ‘Others’ had won  three seats. Voting percentage wise, BJP may get 46.2 pc, Congress may get 42.3 pc, AAP may get 2.3 pc and Others may get 9.2 pc votes.

 In Himachal Pradesh, India TV-Matrize Random Sampling Survey was done among 13,600 respondents (8160 males, 5440 females) across 68 assembly constituencies from October 15 till November 2. The margin of error being plus/minus 5 per cent.  29 per cent respondents said, Chief Minister Jairam Thakur’s performance was ’Very Good’. 37 per cent said it was ‘Average’ while 31 per cent described his performance as ‘Very Poor’.  43 per cent respondents said government will change this time, 48 per cent said the present government will stay, while nine per cent had no opinion.  The topmost issues before voters were: Unemployment (26 pc), Price rise (14 pc), corruption (11 pc), Unhappy with MLAs (9 pc) and Old Pension Scheme (6 pc).  Which party will suffer most because of groupism? To this question, 38 pc said ‘BJP’, 27 pc said ‘Congress’, and 33 pc said ‘Both parties’. Among the best CM candidate, Jairam Thakur topped the list with 26 per cent, former CM Virbhadra Singh’s widow and Congress leader Pratibha Singh with 17 per cent, and Leader of Opposition (Congress) Mukesh Agnihotri with nine per cent.  To the question, will Narendra Modi become a game changer in elections, 32 per cent said ‘to a large extent’, 43 pc said said ‘to some extent’, and 23 pc said ‘will not have any effect’.

                Source: India TV