A rebel/militia takeover, a fleeing leader, Palace loot, jubilation on streets, prisoners set free and the world watching silently. Sounds a familiar plot. This time it was Syria, on December 8, 2024

Syria just had its moment of purge with President Bashar Al Assad fleeing after rebels took over Damascus following the Israel Hamas crisis that spilled over and engulfed the region.

In a matter of a fortnight as Aleppo and Homes, the biggest cities of Syria, were taken over by Islamist-groups including Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the Syrian Armed Forces withdrew without any resistance facilitating an easy advance by the rebel militia and other groups including the Opposition. It was an end of the 50-year rule of Assad family. The future of Syria is as good as anybody’s guess.

Assad’s Syria was a secular ‘Autocracy’ inherited by his father. An eye surgeon by profession, turn of circumstances after his father’s death put him on the throne. Assad tactfully handled the 2011 peoples uprising by crushing it with the support of Iran and Russia. Since then Syria is in a state of civil unrest which had continued. In 2023 he was blamed by the West for using chemical & biological weapons on his people to quell unrest in 2018.

Like Afghanistan and lately Bangladesh, it will be seen if Syria heads towards chaos with militia taking over or that the new system will rise to the expectation of its people. On what led to Syria’s fall and what made Assad flee his country, former Ambassador to Libya and Jordon, Anil Trigunayat says, ‘Assad’s fall has been achieved after 13 years of the Arab Spring when the West finally succeeded in getting him ousted. Assad made the same mistakes which most dictators do ..distance from the people. He did not mend fences with the opposition whom he dismissed as terrorists and did not care of his 90% below poverty line population. Seeds of discontent at the grass roots level were ripe and HTS and other groups, preparing for years, took advantage of Russian and Iranian weakness and distraction.’

With the world powers directly as well as indirectly involved West Asia dynamics has exploded. Syria has been traditionally supported by Russia and Iran and as Israel Hamas fight intensified, the US kept supplying Tel Aviv with deadliest of arms. With the elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership Israel managed to create a comfortable space for itself, as the proxies of Iran were no longer active. Syria was to be next. The timing mattered. Iran, with its attention towards Israel and Russia occupied with Ukraine, the fuelling of anti-Assad forces was ideal for a regime change that was anti West.

A Syrian Journalist Dr Waiel Awwad, although not so optimistic, would like to see his country move in the right direction. Talking about the larger play involved against his country, said, ‘The unfortunate part and the real politics is that Israel is continuing bombarding of Syrian cities, different infrastructure, military installations, occupied territories extension to Golan Heights where they had Jaber-e-Sheikh and connected provinces that are rich in oil on the pretext that no military zone can be left & the truce of 1947 is being violated saying that radicals are a threat to Israeli territory.’

Ruing about the vested interests around Syria, Dr Awwad says, ‘Israel bombarding Syrian cities is a sign that they want to disintegrate Syria & weaken Syria further, breaking it up is on their cards. On the other hand, US is playing the Kurd card supporting Kurd Democratic Forces who are aspiring for a Kurdistan enclave inside Syria. They have been eyeing Syrian territories from day one. When Aleppo fell, Turkish flag was placed over the castle of Aleppo as if Aleppo is the city of Turkey not Syria. Disintegration of Syria by Western countries remains high on their card. On Russia’s presence in the Mediterranean Sea & its naval base, will be facing trouble specially after the takeover. All this shows that Israeli’s are driving the nose. But the concern for us is that the rise of extremist forces and violence amongst groups could lead to more tensions in the region, the spillover will be devastating for the neighbouring countries specially Jordon, even Turkey, Egypt, Iraq & Iran.’

A large number of US forces are stationed in Syria. As of February 2021, there are around 900 US soldiers operating in Syria, according to the US Department of Defense. According to Reuters, Turkey, Iran, Russia and the United States have all deployed troops in Syria since 2011. Russia has 2 bases in Syria, Naval and Air Force at Khmeimim and Tartus. Iran deployed its Revolutionary Guards to Syria as early as 2012 to help Assad. Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, played a big part. As for US even though the President election Donald Trump in his social media post writes that US will keep out of it and that it’s not their battle, President Biden is neck deep in the region’s arithmetic.

India’s concern would be its citizens in Syria and their safety. There are about 92 Indians in Syria including 14 who are working in various UN organisations and NGOs in Syria. The majority of Indians there are skilled workers in private companies and self-employed, according to Ministry of External Affairs. MEA had also issued a Travel Advisory when reports of Aleppo falling poured in, saying, ‘In view of the situation prevailing in Syria, Indian nationals are advised to avoid all travel to Syria. Those who can, are advised to leave by the earliest available commercial flights and others are requested to restrict their movements to the minimum.’

On December 11 India in an evacuation mission, evacuated 75 Indian nationals from the country. The evacuees included 44 ‘zaireen’ from Jammu & Kashmir who were stranded at Saida Zainab. As per MEA release all Indian nationals have safely crossed over to Lebanon and returned by available commercial flights to India.

The evacuation, coordinated by the embassies of India in Damascus and Beirut, was put into effect following our assessment of the security situation and requests from Indian nationals in Syria.

Syria India relations under Assad were cordial and friendly. Bilateral relations extended to assistance as grants and LoC and mutual visits. India’s stand was nuanced. MEA issued a statement saying. ‘We are monitoring the situation in Syria in the light of the ongoing developments. We underline the need for all parties to work towards preserving the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria. We advocate a peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process, respecting the interests and aspirations of all sections of Syrian society. Our Embassy in Damascus is in contact with the Indian community, for their safety and security,’ the MEA said. Sources in Delhi said its embassy remained operational in Damascus.

Commenting on the situation in Syria and how do the coming days look like, India based Syrian Journalist Dr Waiel Awwad said, ‘There is jubilation in the streets of Syria at the ouster of Assad. People are celebrating and are also getting released from different jails. But we don’t know if it is a short-lived celebration depending on the next move. There is formation of a transitional government. People are being asked by the military commanders not to blaze the cities, not to attack minorities, public properties or carry guns. If these things are followed and Syria remains intact then we may see a happy ending for the Syrian people, opening a new chapter in their future planning.’

As Assad takes refuge in Russia and Russia being a major stakeholder in Syria’s security scenario, Russia’s MoFA came out with a statement saying, ‘We are monitoring the dramatic developments in Syria with extreme concern. In this regard, the Russian Federation maintains contact with all Syrian opposition groups. Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert. There is no serious threat to their security at the moment.’

Russia’s take amplifies Russian stand. Earlier speaking at the 22nd Doha Forum session, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had said, ‘We are absolutely convinced of inadmissibility to use terrorists like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to achieve geopolitical purposes. We are trying to do everything not to allow terrorists to prevail, even if they say that they are no longer terrorists. ‘

What’s important is what lies ahead for Syrian’s, Trigunayat says, ‘Real test of HTS and other groups begin now as to how they and their benefactors will distribute the spoils and bring about stability. Credentials of groups like HTS and Kurds will cause concerns for the US, Israel and Turkey who are the new players. If some viable modus vivendi is secured among various actors the Syrians might see good days ahead otherwise they will be heading for a more vicious civil war.’

(The author is a New Delhi based Senior Independent Journalist. She is a political analyst and blogs on Diplomacy)