The news cycles influence polls.  The mainstream media with the exception of Fox and the WSJ have always supported the Democratic candidates.  We used to have CBS-NYT; NBC-WSJ; AND ABC-WPOST.  These pollsters used to put out polls almost weekly, especially from Labor Day to Election Day.   The Gallup Poll used to be the most accurate.   Realclear average of all Polls is also popular and may be more accurate than even NYT Sienna Poll.

I have decided not to go by the national polls that reflect popular votes.  The Democrats always score in popular votes because of the large population of California.

Kamala Harris created the best first impressions by campaigning in Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania — one after another on a continuous basis.  This had a huge impact and she started gaining in polls against Trump.    Next was the DNC and her Acceptance Speech.    So far Kamala Harris is ahead in national polls only by 3 points.  In battleground States she is leading by 1 or 2 points; she had tied Trump in PA.

Going by Hillary Clinton and Biden’s track record in polls, I had expected Kamala would be up by 5 points nationally and would widen her lead in battleground States.   Perhaps, this may happen before Labor Day.

RFK Jr. endorsing and embracing Trump publicly should benefit Trump to become more competitive with Kamala Harris.  As a result, I am not expecting Kamala to make a significant lead before the September 10 debate if it takes place!

Based on my reading,  the race is going to be very tight in Pennsylvania as it was in 2016 and 2020.  I could even say whoever wins Pennsylvania will be our next President.   The debates could make an impact also.