Using India as a balance to keep China in its place suits President Trump, just now. India, in turn, still needs US cooperation.

“The US-China relationship has, however, been heading for hard times, arising from the substantial mutual distrust and dislike between the leaders of the two powers. The restoration of trust and cooperation would take time, especially as the tone of the Trump rhetoric would have shocked people in the ‘Middle Kingdom’. But Trump can always use the good offices of Elon Musk to address differences with China, given the vast relationship and vested interests that Musk shares with the ‘Middle Kingdom’. Already, there is speculation that China is considering a plan for Elon Musk to acquire TikTok’s US business. Indians who find occasion to deal with Musk must bear this in mind.”

At his end-of-the-year news conference in December 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared: “I must say that the situation is changing dramatically.” He added: “There is movement along the entire frontline every day.”

Putin is given to choosing his words very carefully. It is now clear that it is only a matter of time before Russia achieves its territorial objectives of forcing Ukraine out of residual Russian territory, that Moscow now wants to soon regain and control. This is the territory that Moscow had historically controlled, along its southern shores. It now appears likely that Ukraine will be forced out of the territory it took control of prior to the conflict. Russia is, even now, recovering territory that it lost, since the conflict began.

Also, there is no doubt that this has been a case of the young and inexperienced Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, being encouraged by the Biden administration and its NATO allies to enhance control of its south-eastern shores.

It is now evident that unlike the Biden administration, the Trump administration will not back the Ukrainians in their military operations to take on Putin’s soldiers. In the process, the US seems to have forgotten that one of the main aims of the Russians has historically been to retain control of and unfettered access to the “warm waters” across their shores. Joe Biden did not evidently take note of the importance that Russia attached to the territories it controlled in its east, which provide it with access to the sea, especially across Ukraine.

The most important change being seen with the advent of Trump is that a serious effort is underway for resolving these issues, to ensure that Moscow’s access to the sea is fully secured. Moreover, there are signs that in eastern Ukraine, the Russians are carefully seizing control of territory across the Donbas region.

President Trump, however, appears to be deliberately oblivious of European concerns on Russia’s territorial claims. He has described Putin’s territorial claims as: “This is genius. Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine as independent. That is wonderful.” This is astonishing as one could not have expected Washington to support Moscow’s territorial claims!

Regarding US-China relations under President Trump, while India is making efforts to end tensions on its borders with China, there appears to be little possibility of any serious breakthrough happening in Trump’s relations with China. Trump has not hesitated to allude to his differences with China’s policies. This has been reinforced by his appointment of Senator Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State and of Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser.

Rubio and Waltz are both characterized as “staunch China hawks” in Washington. Rubio has been banned twice in 2020 from entering China. One wonders if the bans are still in place. Both these Trump appointees would not exactly be welcome in China.

Yet, another Trump ally, multi-billionaire Elon Musk, has a huge commercial interests in China, running into scores of billions of dollars. Trump is evidently keeping Beijing uncertain about his intentions.

Despite the rhetoric, Trump is quite obviously keeping his options open with China. Using India as a balance to keep China in its place suits President Trump, just now. India, in turn, still needs US cooperation in areas ranging from high-tech, defense production and space to other spheres of security exchanges and economic cooperation. This is occurring amidst a growing, highly educated Indian population in the US, which is currently estimated at 5.1 million.

The US-China relationship has, however, been heading for hard times, arising from the substantial mutual distrust and dislike between the leaders of the two powers. The restoration of trust and cooperation would take time, especially as the tone of the Trump rhetoric would have shocked people in the ‘Middle Kingdom’. But Trump can always use the good offices of Elon Musk to address differences with China, given the vast relationship and vested interests that Musk shares with the ‘Middle Kingdom’. Already, there is speculation that China is considering a plan for Elon Musk to acquire TikTok’s US business. Indians who find occasion to deal with Musk must bear this in mind.

Another important factor that one cannot ignore is that Trump has a good relationship with President Putin. And countries across the world understand this clearly.

The person to be hit the hardest by these developments is Ukraine’s besieged President Zelenskyy. He has made the rather serious miscalculation of believing that he could take on Putin’s Russia in a territorial dispute, with backing by the US, led by Joe Biden. Sadly, Biden’s successor Donald Trump is in no mood to back Zelenskyy.

A negotiating tool that Trump has at his disposal is the battery of punitive sanctions imposed on Russia, led by the US. One of the final acts of the outgoing Biden administration has been the levy of a comprehensive sanctions package targeting Russia’s energy sector, effective January 10, 2025. Trump has frequently expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of sanctions as a standalone tool and signaled a willingness to use their reduction or removal as leverage in negotiations with Moscow. This approach may include offering a relief in sanctions in exchange for Russian concessions on Ukraine, such as agreeing to a ceasefire or territorial compromises in contested ‘independent’ regions, like Donbas.

For India, which has significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian crude despite the tightening noose of sanctions, any potential easing could be a significant relief, stabilizing global energy markets and recalibrating supply chains. In fact, two Indian companies have been included in the January 10 sanctions list, embargoed for their alleged involvement in managing LNG carriers that transported cargo from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project.

Given these emerging dynamics, India will need to carefully recalibrate its geopolitical and geostrategic ties, ensuring its interests are safeguarded while adapting to the evolving contours of the US-Russia and US-China relations under President Trump.

(G Parthasarathy is an Indian journalist, educationist, and a former diplomat)