The re-election of Donald Trump does not guarantee a new US-Israel honeymoon

Trump’s long-held dream has been to be accepted as a peacemaker who excels in cutting deals, including bringing an end to the historic conflict between Jews and Arabs. If that results in his winning the Nobel Peace Prize, he may be prepared to force Israel to make relevant compromises, such as agreeing to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Israelis may be delighted with the departure of the Biden administration in the United States, but the re-election of Donald Trump does not guarantee a new US-Israel honeymoon.

Despite the widely publicized pictures of Biden hugging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the underlying bilateral tensions were never far from the surface.

Washington’s pressure on Netanyahu started to intensify as casualties mounted in Gaza and a humanitarian crisis emerged with the killings of thousands of Palestinian civilians. In the weeks leading up to the US presidential election, the crisis between Washington DC and Jerusalem reached a new climax with President Joe Biden reportedly telling Netanyahu “stop bull-shitting me.”

By all accounts, the frustrated Americans additionally suspended some deliveries of bunker-busting bombs that they believed would increase civilian casualties. So, it was hardly surprising to hear the sighs of relief from the Israeli Prime Minister’s office when the results of the US presidential election started rolling in.

The humiliating defeat suffered by Biden’s vice-president and chosen successor Kamala Harris generated a euphoria, both within Israel’s far right cabinet and among many Israeli Jewish civilians. What Israelis now hope for is a return to the golden era of the first Trump administration when the US undertook a number of measures that were seen as a full endorsement of the Israeli far right’s ideology.

These measures included the relocation of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the recognition of Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel and the further recognition of the Golan Heights — previously Syrian territory — as an integral part of Israel. Contrary to UN resolutions and international law, the Americans, under Trump, also ruled that Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank were entirely legitimate. US officials even went as far as cutting off all financial aid to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which for the past seven decades has been providing vital food, medical and educational services to millions of Palestinian families.

These policies embraced by Trump allowed him to boast how he was the most pro-Israeli US President in history. Yet, despite his pro-Israel record, which also enraged the Palestinians and other Arabs, it turns out that the vast majority of American Jews opted to vote for his rival Kamala Harris. Most American Jews are known to be traditionally more sympathetic to the Democrats and they expressed their support at the ballot box.

Among the reasons for their distaste of Trump were media portrayals of the incoming president as a supporter of dictators, including Adolph Hitler, and his alleged hostility towards illegal immigrants who were denounced by him and his supporters as “rapists”, “murderers” and “criminals” who reveled in eating domestic pets like cats and dogs.

Back in 2020, when Trump lost the election to Joe Biden, the defeated US President was outraged by an “ungrateful” Netanyahu who rushed to congratulate his Democrat rival. Soon afterwards, in a recorded interview with Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, when asked about Netanyahu, Trump responded: “f*** him.”

Trump’s profile suggests he is a man who harbors grudges against those perceived to be disloyal. So, whether he can now forgive and forget Netanyahu’s past actions, remains to be seen.

Since Trump’s recent victory was confirmed, Netanyahu was among the first world leaders to offer his congratulations and he has made at least three subsequent telephone calls to the President-elect. These telephone calls reflect the deep concern in Netanyahu’s office that Trump will no longer be the pushover he once was.

Statements made by Trump in the immediate aftermath of the presidential election have added to the concern of Israeli officials. His declaration that the US is committed to ending conflicts, not prolonging them, has aroused fears that the new US administration will follow the same line as the Biden administration by demanding an immediate cessation of hostilities in West Asia, including the Israeli-led wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Israeli officials are also worried by the influence of a new member of the wider Trump family who happens to be a Lebanese Christian. Massad Boulos, father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany, is believed to have convinced many Arab voters in the US to cast their lot with Trump. Inevitably, Trump now feels indebted to this new block of Arab political supporters who are extremely critical of what they see as Washington’s blind support for Israel.

In Jerusalem’s multiple think tanks, the talk is all about how it would be a mistake to take Trump for granted in his second and final term in office. This argument goes that the new US administration has excellent ties with the Saudis and Gulf governments and will be more susceptible than before to pressure Israel.

Trump’s long-held dream has been to be accepted as a peacemaker who excels in cutting deals, including bringing an end to the historic conflict between Jews and Arabs. If that results in his winning the Nobel Peace Prize, he may be prepared to force Israel to make relevant compromises, such as agreeing to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

This is just the kind of policy shift that Trump’s Arab allies are also demanding. First and foremost are the Saudis who say that they are ready to make peace with Israel in return for recognition of a Palestinian state. The Arabs argue that allowing a Palestinian state would undercut Iran’s attempts to dominate the region and isolate the Ayatollahs in Tehran as they move closer to acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

Fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions has long been shared by Israelis of all political persuasions. They remember how Biden stopped Israel from bombing Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities. Will Trump do the same?
(Shyam Bhatia is an Indian-born British journalist, writer and war reporter based in London)