There is uncertainty over whether his MAGA push will help Make India Great Again

“Faced with such transactionalism, it would seem, India has hedged its bets by stabilizing relations with both Russia and China. Some analysts have expressed the hope that Trump may improve relations with Russia and that would in turn enable India to retain that relationship while continuing to deal with China. Whatever the facts, the point is that it will take time before some stability returns to the US-India relationship. Indeed, this would be true even for US relations with key allies and neighbors. Everyone is waiting and watching to see how much of Trumpism is bluff and bluster and how much he means business.”

During the US presidential election campaign, the commentariat in India was generally of the opinion that a second Trump presidency would be beneficial for India. Much hope was invested in the so-called personal chemistry and bonhomie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump. As events have unfolded over the past few weeks, it would appear that New Delhi now awaits Trump a bit nervously.

Much has been made of Trump’s early invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration. It took some diplomatic effort on External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s part to ensure that at least he received an invitation. More worrying, however, are Trump’s remarks about trade, tariffs and immigration. Along with the rest of the world, India is getting prepared for a period of turbulence in the bilateral relationship as well as in global geopolitics.

Evan Feigenbaum, vice-president of Washington DC-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and a former member of the George W Bush administration, warns that Asian governments and markets should be prepared for Trump-induced turbulence. “Geopolitically, Asian governments, firms and especially markets should prepare to face a whirlwind of strategic turbulence,” says Feigenbaum.

Jaishankar’s last air dash to Washington helped get the outgoing national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to New Delhi. That visit sought to inject new energy into a sagging affair. During his proposed visit to Washington DC this weekend, the foreign minister will seek to inject even more energy into the relationship. Such activism draws attention to the concern with anticipated turbulence.

In recent weeks, many within the ruling establishment in India have complained about the anti-India stratagems of the so-called American ‘deep state’, including influential individuals like George Soros. This kind of talk emanating from within the Sangh Parivar betrays nervousness in New Delhi despite the confidence exuded by diplomats and officials. At least one reason for this would be the uncertainty about the answer to a simple question — will MAGA help MIGA?

Trump’s promise for his second presidency is primarily to Make America Great Again (MAGA). Modi’s promise to India has been MIGA — Make India Great Again. In the past, especially in the early years of the US-India strategic partnership during the tenures of President George W Bush and Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, the template was that it would be in US interest to help India’s rise. It is this view, especially on the part of President Bush and his advisers that facilitated the US-India civil nuclear agreement. This view had to contend with doubts within the American establishment as to where India stood on matters of interest to the US. Doubts regarding the latter were renewed after India played footsie with Vladimir Putin following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the United States, three schools of thought contend with each other on the US-India relationship. These can be classified as ideological, realist and transactional. The ideological school, never a decisive voice, has always placed great emphasis on the fact that India is a democracy and that its rise as a plural democracy is in the interests of the US. The West fought Soviet communism during the Cold War and now responds to Chinese authoritarianism. In both battles, the empowerment of a democratic India was viewed as a global public good.

The realist view situates US-India relations within a global balance of power perspective that sees a stronger India as a helpful balancer against an aggressive and assertive China, at least within Asia. The fact is that US-India ties have improved over the past two decades against the backdrop of China’s rise.

Hence, both the ideological and the realist views have contributed to an improvement in US-India relations, with the American establishment viewing India’s rise as being in its own interest and a positive development in itself. Making India Great Again suited US interests as long as India was viewed as an emerging counterforce to China.

By contrast, the purely transactional view that Trump opted for during his first tenure has insistently asked the question, ‘what’s in it for me?’ Entering his second term Trump now asks that question with renewed vigor and force and the question is asked of the world as a whole, India included.

The rise of transactionalism over realism means India has to show what it can do to MAGA for the US to do something to MIGA. Even though such transactionalism is associated with the first Trump presidency, it found new takers within the Biden administration after India went along with Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war. A growing number of officials within the Biden administration also became transactional and kept ticking off points as to what India was doing for or against US interests. Expect more of that going forward.

Faced with such transactionalism, it would seem, India has hedged its bets by stabilizing relations with both Russia and China. Some analysts have expressed the hope that Trump may improve relations with Russia and that would in turn enable India to retain that relationship while continuing to deal with China. Whatever the facts, the point is that it will take time before some stability returns to the US-India relationship. Indeed, this would be true even for US relations with key allies and neighbors. Everyone is waiting and watching to see how much of Trumpism is bluff and bluster and how much he means business.

Even as India hopes to stabilize and improve its relationship with the US, it has to be prepared for the anticipated turbulence. After all, Trump’s basic and fundamental policy objective will remain America First. The US is determined to retain its dominant global position, secure control over the trans-Atlantic alliance and ensure that allies spend more on their defense so that it can focus its resources on making its own economy more globally competitive and dominant.

(Sanjaya Baru is a political commentator and policy analyst)