India is not well-placed to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine

Just days after his visit to Kyiv, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s telephonic conversations with U.S. President Joseph Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have raised hopes that New Delhi is ready to take the plunge and attempt peacemaking in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Mr. Modi’s travel to the UN in September, where he will meet U.S. and European leaders and possibly Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again, and another visit to Russia in October for the BRICS summit, have fueled those hopes. However, those who are boosting speculation of an Indian role may benefit from a careful consideration of the circumstances, and India’s position thus far. Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, India has remained distant from the outcomes of what External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had once called “Europe’s war” and any peace process that does not involve bringing Russia and Ukraine to the table for talks. It had even disassociated itself from the Swiss peace summit. While Mr. Modi has consistently said that India is “on the side of peace” alone, New Delhi has been seen to be partial to Moscow, given its historical ties and military and energy dependencies. It will need to recast itself in a more unbiased image. Meanwhile, the war continues without pause, indicating the belief in both parties of there still being military gains to be made. That Russia launched deadly attacks on Ukraine just before the Modi Moscow visit in July, and Ukraine carried out operations into Russia’s Kursk Oblast just before his visit to Kyiv last week, demonstrate the dangerous power play and messaging Mr. Zelenskyy and Mr. Putin can indulge in, regardless of their guest’s sensitivities.

With such entrenched positions, New Delhi must proceed with care if it indeed seeks to join the ranks of others wanting involvement in conflict resolution. Successful efforts have been few and have required focused agendas — the Black Sea Grain Initiative; the IAEA effort, on nuclear safety at the Zaporizhzhia power plant; and the latest exchange of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners. India must also articulate its own principles for a ceasefire compromise and lasting peace. The Modi government may well benefit from studying India’s own history: In the 1950s, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, at the instance of Vienna, mediated with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev on troops withdrawal from the north-east zone of Austria post-war, in return for promises of Austrian neutrality. An Indian peace initiative will be further complicated by the proposals Ukraine and Russia have themselves put forth: Mr. Zelenskyy insists on a full military withdrawal from Ukraine by Russia first, and Mr. Putin has called for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from regions now occupied by Russia, and for Kyiv to formally give up any efforts to join NATO.

(The Hindu)