Kejriwal nowhere near goal of offering alternative, while Rahul yet to prove mettle

“Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra has been making a serious flutter. The picture painted of Rahul as a spoilt, little ‘baba’ is being slowly obliterated with every sure step he takes on his marathon journey. During the election fever, he was off the air, but even after the results were announced and new CMs appointed, the channels have not brought him back into focus.

“If he is to be the Congress’ candidate to face Modi in 2024, he will not only have to join disparate forces in the Opposition space, but also prove his clout with the voting public to convince Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, Chandrashekar Rao and Nitish Kumar that he means business, is ready, and, above all, capable of leading. If he cannot do this, five different PMs-in-waiting will emerge!”

The results of the Assembly elections held in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and the municipal elections in Delhi panned out as predicted. The Modi-Shah regime could not afford any loss of face in Gujarat. They suffered embarrassment last time because of the demand for reservation for the Patel community which dominates the political space in the state.

Rahul Gandhi will have to show he means business, is ready, and, above all, capable of leading. If he cannot do this, five different Opposition candidates will emerge!

Both the young men who led that agitation, Hardik Patel and another young man with influence among the OBCs, have crossed over to the BJP, strengthening the hands of the party. This alone made a massive difference in the support base of the BJP and the Congress. The Congress share in the total votes cast fell from 40% plus in 2017 to 26% in this election. The new player in the power struggle, Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, cornered 13%, which gave it only five seats in the legislature but a big toehold in the state.

The AAP is far removed from its dream of forming a government in Gujarat. It will take two decades or more to come to that level. In Gujarat, despite AAP’s massive propaganda blitz, it came nowhere even near the Congress, which remains the principal opposition party there. The way the Congress is going about its business, it may lose even that status next time round.

Kejriwal, personally, is nowhere near his goal of offering an alternative to Modi, even if he postpones his challenge to 2029. In 2024, he does not have a chance. At present, Modi is the king of all he surveys. I have no doubt that he will ride the popularity wave in 2024.

Persons of goodwill were disappointed when BJP leaders in the state and the Centre remitted the sentences of life imprisonment awarded to rapists and killers of women and children in the Bilkis Bano case. One would have thought that there would have been public outcry against such a perverse use of constitutional powers. At least, there should have been a severe condemnation of the reception accorded to the released convicts. Perhaps, the leadership had gauged the mood of its electorate. The release of the convicts and the welcome accorded to them was a recipe to gain electoral victories.

The people of Gujarat have their own distinct collective personality. A gentle, nonviolent people at most times, with their heads buried in books of accounts, they have a cerebral fear of those who struggle for their next meal, but do not hesitate to use their fists, even knives — and now guns — to settle scores. The Gujaratis used to rely on uniformed men of the Army and the police to protect them from physical harm, but now they have begun to support militant Hindutva and its front-line troops, led by the VHP and the Bajrang Dal.

Home Minister Amit Shah had proclaimed in an election speech that the government (or is it the party? Perhaps both, since the police follow the ruling party’s dictat) had taught the mischief-makers a lesson in 2002. There has been no communal violence since then he proclaimed! This sums up the thinking of the ordinary Gujarati today. A reminder of that ‘truth’ before elections is sufficient to move voters to the polling booths.

Himachal Pradesh has a very small percentage of Muslim voters. Their votes are inconsequential to the final outcome. The voters continue to vote in the pattern they were accustomed to, replacing an incumbent party by its opponent every five years. There is the usual quest for leadership and the consequent infighting in every party. Since power was vested in the BJP before these elections, it had more than its fair share of infighting. Now that the Congress has replaced it in Shimla, it should expect the same fate in 2027, if it can hold out that long. Till 2027, its problem will be to keep its flock together.

The Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, an ally of the BJP, has hit upon a unique method of keeping its MLAs pleased. It has withdrawn the vehicles supplied to police stations under the Nirbhaya scheme — vehicles meant to protect women from lust — and transferred them to each legislator to guard them from bodily harm! Each Shinde-faction MLA now has round-the-clock protection of five policemen. Protecting them from possible attacks from what? No one knows! There are 40-odd legislators belonging to this faction. Each will insist on his full quota of five trained policemen to bolster his ego and make him feel so much more important. Five men each for 40 legislators totals to 200. Since there is no sanction for such a huge deployment, the police stations will be denuded. The men will be taken off normal patrols and deputed to keep the MLAs happy. The cost to the exchequer and the travails of a depleted police station are of no consequence, or so it seems.

Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra has been making a serious flutter. The picture painted of Rahul as a spoilt, little ‘baba’ is being slowly obliterated with every sure step he takes on his marathon journey. During the election fever, he was off the air, but even after the results were announced and new CMs appointed, the channels have not brought him back into focus.

Rahul had said his yatra was not connected to the polls. He campaigned in Gujarat for just one day as the yatra’s ultimate purpose was more important for him. But the results may force him to rethink.

If he is to be the Congress’ candidate to face Modi in 2024, he will not only have to join disparate forces in the Opposition space, but also prove his clout with the voting public to convince Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, Chandrashekar Rao and Nitish Kumar that he means business, is ready, and, above all, capable of leading. If he cannot do this, five different PMs-in-waiting will emerge!

(The author is a retired IPS officer and a former governor )