Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to the US for a much-anticipated meeting with President Donald Trump next week, buoyed by strengthening political fortunes at home.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is tipped to win local elections in Delhi that, if confirmed in vote-counting tomorrow, would end the BJP’s almost three-decade exile from power in the capital.

That would add to the BJP’s sweep of November’s polls in the wealthy state of Maharashtra, helping a turnaround since the stinging loss of its parliamentary majority last year. The central bank’s decision to cut interest rates today should give a boost to Modi’s push to revive India’s slowing economy.

Ahead of his visit, Modi has sent a series of not-so-subtle hints to Trump to go easy on India. In his government’s annual budget last week, he unveiled cuts to India’s own (notoriously high) tariffs, including on Harley-Davidson motorcycles — a clear concession to Trump on a longtime grievance.

He has offered no resistance to accepting the return of undocumented Indian migrants — despite reports that deportees may have been mistreated — and has made clear India will stick to the dollar as a trading currency. Other Trump actions like sanctioning the International Criminal Court are unlikely to bother Modi, since India isn’t a signatory.

So far, there’s little indication Trump intends to drag India into his unfolding trade war, perhaps because it’s too important to the US’s strategy of containing China in the Indo-Pacific to risk alienating it.

There’s even talk of the two leaders restarting discussions on a US-India free-trade agreement. That would be a boon for Modi, who needs US consumers to keep buying Indian exports to offset a massive trade deficit.

Still, Trump’s likely to want more from Modi — perhaps agreeing to further reduce India’s trade barriers and accept more migrants.

That’s a deal Modi may be willing to cut if it keeps India in Trump’s good graces.
(Bloomberg)