India needs to be well prepared for challenges

India is on course to become the world’s most populous country. The ‘World Population Prospects 2022’ report says that India’s population is projected to be 1.429 billion next year, when China would have 1.426 billion people. By 2050, it is estimated that India will have 1.668 billion people, far ahead of China’s population, which will drop to 1.317 billion. The UN has credited India with bringing down the fertility rate slowly and smoothly, in stark contrast to China’s strict policies that have produced rapid results.

The report of the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), released in May this year, stated that India’s total fertility rate — the average number of children per woman — had ‘further declined from 2.2 to 2 at the national level’. One of the survey’s key findings was that there were only five states whose fertility rate was above the replacement level of 2.1 (the rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next) — Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Manipur. Notably, these states are among the laggards in terms of per capita income. This makes it obvious that population growth adversely impacts economic prosperity. The fact that Jains, Sikhs and Buddhists have fertility rates well below the national average can be largely attributed to economic security among members of these communities. Overtaking China as the most populous nation will pose a new set of challenges for policymakers. The government’s welfare schemes will have to factor in the rising numbers and the availability of resources to ensure that all eligible beneficiaries are covered. Healthcare, housing and education sectors, in particular, will come under greater strain. India might have made significant strides in population control in recent years, but there is no room for complacency. The overall contraceptive prevalence rate has risen from 54 per cent to 67 per cent; the aim should be to improve it substantially through an intensive and extensive awareness programme about the use of modern methods of contraception. Once population growth reaches an unmanageable level, socio-economic development will be derailed. India can’t afford to let that happen.

(Tribune India)