In any democratic election, one of the most consistent patterns observed globally is the desire for change. Voters often seek a fresh government, hoping for a better deal, more responsible leadership, and greater responsiveness to their needs. This trend is universal, whether in the US, UK, Canada, India, or any other democracy. As a result, the incumbency factor — the tendency of voters to vote against the party in power — plays a significant role in shaping electoral outcomes. The longer a government remains in power, the greater the chances it will face defeat unless it has consistently delivered exceptional governance.

This pattern was evident in the recent Delhi Assembly elections, which saw a significant shift in the political landscape of the capital. For years, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been in power in Delhi, having won a historic majority in 2015 and retaining power in 2020. However, in the latest election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had been out of power in Delhi for over 30 years, managed to achieve a sweeping victory, ending AAP’s reign.

AAP’s victory in the 2015 election was nothing short of an upset. The party defeated the Congress, a long-standing political powerhouse, and emerged as a major force in Delhi politics. AAP’s success was fueled by a combination of factors: a public sentiment against the Congress, the party’s promise of corruption-free governance, and its focus on improving basic services like education and healthcare. AAP’s leader, Arvind Kejriwal, became a prominent figure and Delhi’s Chief Minister, with the party securing a resounding 67 out of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly.

However, by the time of the most recent elections, the political climate had shifted. AAP’s time in power had led to some degree of complacency, and many voters began to feel that the promises made by the party were no longer being fulfilled. The incumbency factor began to work against them. Despite having delivered several significant reforms, such as improvements in education and healthcare, AAP faced growing criticism over issues such as the cost of living, unfulfilled promises, and its inability to deal with the rising challenges in governance.

On the other hand, the BJP, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had been steadily building its influence in Delhi. The party’s rise to power was not just about local issues but also about its increasing prominence at the national level. The BJP’s success was bolstered by its image as a party that promotes Hindutva and its commitment to creating a Hindu nation, which resonated with a significant portion of the electorate. The consolidation of Hindu votes worked strongly in the BJP’s favor, helping it win over a large section of the population that felt disconnected from AAP’s secular rhetoric.

One of the significant factors behind BJP’s victory was the party’s ability to promise financial allurements and freebies. While AAP had initially made its mark in the 2020 elections with promises of free electricity and water, the BJP capitalized on this by offering even more attractive schemes. Voters, often swayed by such promises, found these assurances hard to resist, despite the fact that the BJP had not always delivered on its past promises, such as the return of black money from abroad or providing a “pucca house” for every family by 2022. Nonetheless, the allure of “Acche Din” (Good Days) continued to hold strong among many voters, echoing Modi’s 2014 slogan that resonated with the hopes of millions.

The BJP’s victory in Delhi can also be attributed to the diminishing influence of the Congress party, which has been in disarray in recent years. Once a dominant force in Indian politics, the Congress has now been relegated to irrelevance in Delhi. With the Congress struggling to find its footing, voters turned to the BJP as the only viable alternative to AAP, despite any reservations they might have had about the BJP’s past record.

The electoral outcome in Delhi serves as a reminder of the fickle nature of politics and the complex dynamics at play. While AAP’s defeat signals the end of an era of governance in Delhi, it also presents a challenging future for the party. With leaders like Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia facing legal battles, the AAP may struggle to regain its footing in the short term.

For the Congress, this defeat of AAP could serve as an opportunity to rebuild itself. The party once ruled Delhi for many years and has a deep-rooted connection with the electorate. While it may currently be on the backfoot, it still holds the potential to regroup and emerge as a force in the future.

However, how the BJP governs Delhi will play a crucial role in determining the next chapter in Delhi’s politics.