The Congress needs to go beyond the current focus on the negative aspects of the ruling dispensation or its perceived faultlines

“The Congress can build on this base, but to take this process forward, it needs to project a clear ideological narrative and articulate its own politics. For a start, it shouldn’t try to outdo the BJP as a ‘more Hindu’ party, particularly when voters have the option to go for the real thing. The ideological counter must reflect a different model of development with an emphasis on rights-based welfare, especially employment guarantees interlaced with social harmony. In sum, the Congress has to reboot its political discourse by foregrounding something substantive, which is best done by advocating a positive agenda that can galvanize the electorate and goes beyond the current focus on the negative aspects of the ruling dispensation or the perceived faultlines within it and the politics it has promoted.”

The Congress’ remarkable victory in Telangana was overshadowed by its devastating defeat in the Hindi heartland in the just-concluded Assembly elections. The Congress has suffered a big blow as it lost all three states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — it had won in 2018. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) comprehensive victory was backed by support across most regions in these states and a strong showing in urban areas. But the Congress, despite its defeat, has managed to retain its vote share — Madhya Pradesh (40.4 per cent), Rajasthan (39.5 per cent) and Chhattisgarh (42.23 per cent). The BJP has gained mostly at the expense of others in the fray. With these triumphs, the BJP has expanded its dominance of a key region ahead of the 2024 General Election. However, the Congress vote share holds considerable significance in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress tried to highlight issues such as joblessness and caste discrimination in the hope that it would appeal locally in the state elections and nationally in the General Election. But its two-pronged plank of welfare schemes and social justice was upstaged by the subtext of Hindu nationalism and communal politics. The BJP’s victories highlight the consolidation of Hindu nationalism and the great resonance it enjoys in the heartland states. The use of state machinery, ample financial resources and the party’s organizational framework, buttressed by RSS cadres, have helped it promote itself as a champion of a strong nation, development and welfarism as well as of Hindu interests and the Hindu religion.

From the outset, the BJP’s campaign pivoted on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, relegating established state leaders to the sidelines. The party decided not to nominate a chief ministerial candidate for any of the states going to the polls. This meant that even popular state leaders of the Congress like Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Baghel were not pitted against their local BJP rivals, but against Modi himself. The PM’s huge popularity in north and central India neutralized the public acceptance of these leaders.

Taking a cue from its experience in Karnataka, where the visibility and prominence of local leaders paid off, the Congress projected state leaders, who were given a free hand. However, the infighting and overweening ambitions of its leaders in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh put paid to this strategy. Factionalism and divided state leadership, which have been the undoing of the Congress in many states, was on full display throughout its term in office in these two states. Leaders were attacking each other until a few months before the elections, which sent a message to voters that this was a party that couldn’t keep its house in order. A settlement was forged between the warring leaders in both states, but it was a case of too little, too late.

Apart from factionalism, there was no accord or concord between the state leadership and the high command. The Congress campaign lacked coherence; it appeared disjointed, with powerful state satraps unwilling to countenance any interference on their turf. In contrast, the BJP’s campaign was intensive and focused and the party spoke in one voice. This is not surprising, as the contemporary BJP is a highly centralized party, while the Congress, in a departure from the past, is relatively decentralized.

To make matters worse, there was no agreement between the Congress and its allies in the state elections. The 28-party INDIA grouping led by the Congress, which came together to fight the BJP, did not feature in the state polls due to inter-party rivalries. Opposition parties should have negotiated state-specific alliances and seat adjustment in a spirit of give-and-take. This is easier said than done. Seat-sharing didn’t happen, which hurt the Congress as well as the INDIA bloc, which the voters saw as a divided house. The fate of the Congress and other parties in this election makes it clear that they can tackle the BJP only when they are united against it.

A caste-based census was the big battlecry of the Congress to undercut the BJP’s support among the OBCs, but it turned out to be a ‘no-ball’. This call had little traction on the ground, with the issue not paying dividends — the BJP’s share of OBC votes has increased. In any case, it is doubtful that the demand for a caste census is an inspiring or effective counter to Hindu identity politics, which holds much greater appeal for subaltern groups in the current conjuncture. Caste politics and ideas of social justice were not enough without a clear political plank to serve as a counterpoint to the BJP’s politics in these states or effective campaigning, ideological clarity and organizational cohesion to communicate its message.

There is limited evidence of a correlation between state and national elections. Yet, there’s little doubt that the Congress’ decisive defeat at the hands of the BJP in straight contests has undermined its credibility and is bound to demoralize it at a crucial time when the Lok Sabha elections are just five months away. However, all is not lost as the majority of the voters have opted for non-BJP parties in these critical states.

The Congress can build on this base, but to take this process forward, it needs to project a clear ideological narrative and articulate its own politics. For a start, it shouldn’t try to outdo the BJP as a ‘more Hindu’ party, particularly when voters have the option to go for the real thing. The ideological counter must reflect a different model of development with an emphasis on rights-based welfare, especially employment guarantees interlaced with social harmony. In sum, the Congress has to reboot its political discourse by foregrounding something substantive, which is best done by advocating a positive agenda that can galvanize the electorate and goes beyond the current focus on the negative aspects of the ruling dispensation or the perceived faultlines within it and the politics it has promoted.
(The author is Professor Emerita, Centre for Political Studies, JNU)