The results of the Bihar elections have a message for all states headed for polls in the months ahead on taking on the BJP under Modi.
Bihar has sent a strong message to the Opposition parties. They will have to combine effectively to have any chance of taking on the Modi-led BJP in states going to the polls. The RJD’s alliance with the Left parties in Bihar— CPI(ML), CPI(M) and CPI— did well, leading to a high strike rate.
Even though Nitish Kumar has been weakened, the BJP will find it difficult to replace the chief minister with one of its own, having burnt its fingers in Maharashtra, where Uddhav Thackeray, denied the chief ministership, joined hands with the Congress and the NCP. The BJP is expected to tread more carefully in Bihar after the outcome.
Economic distress of an unprecedented kind, compounded by a health pandemic of the last nine months, the migrant march of lakhs of workers on foot with probably the largest number walking back to their villages in Bihar, incursions made into Indian territory by China in the last few months which could have created a nationalistic upsurge against the government, palpable anger against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar that was evident — if these could not bring about a change of government in Bihar, it only shows that the other factors were more dominant. This when, in this instance, there was a clear alternative in Tejashwi Yadav leading the charge on the Opposition side and getting a popular response.
Clearly, Brand Modi managed to slow down the Tejashwi chariot, though it was a closely run race. And Tejashwi, though not able to form a government in Patna, has established himself as a leader of the Mahagathbandhan at the age of 31. He set the terms of the poll narrative when he flagged ‘joblessness’ as the central theme of Bihar 2020, for the first time giving an economic — and aspirational — spin to caste which has determined poll outcomes in Bihar for three decades and more.
Given the downturn in the economy, creation of jobs is increasingly going to find resonance, particularly among the young, as also in other states going to polls in the next few months. The first phase of the election was going the Tejashwi way. The turning point came with Narendra Modi’s invocation of ‘jungle raj’ of the Lalu Yadav-Rabri Devi years. This sent those among the most backward castes and women, who were beginning to look at Tejashwi with new eyes — Yeh naya ladka hai— scurrying back to the NDA again. The upper castes are anyway more enamored of the Hindutva, nationalist theme than of any economic hardship, and stayed by the BJP’s side.
Bihar has reinforced the invincible image of Narendra Modi. He swayed the voters in national elections. This was not always the case in state polls. The BJP did not make it in many states, be it Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In Bihar, the Prime Minister made a difference to the poll outcome. The Bihar strategy may help the BJP in states which are going to the polls in the coming months — in West Bengal, Assam, Punjab, Kerala and then UP in 2022. It combined Modi’s undimmed popularity and sharp articulation, with Hindutva and nationalism (Ayodhya, Pulwama, Jai Shree Ram) as not so covert a theme, undergirded by a subtle appeal to certain castes. The PM has for some time now emphasized the help given to the poor by his government at the Centre, through the programs he has initiated. So, if money was transferred to the people in Bihar during COVID-19 times, they saw it coming ‘from Narendra Modi’ and ‘not from Nitish Kumar’. In the handling of the pandemic, which exacerbated the problems of the migrants, the Central Government successfully managed to shift the responsibility to the chief ministers. In Bihar, the BJP went one step further. It even managed to distance itself from the Bihar CM, even though it was part of the government headed by him. By going hammer and tongs at only Nitish Kumar, and urging the people to vote for the BJP, Chirag Paswan helped shield the BJP while directing the popular ire towards the CM. The BJP’s seats went up substantially, and those of the JD(U) came down, equally substantially. The BJP as the senior partner in the government will have its obvious advantages, and will increase its clout in the decision-making process.
Even though Nitish Kumar has been weakened, the BJP will find it difficult to replace the chief minister with one of its own. Having burnt its fingers in Maharashtra, where Uddhav Thackeray, denied the chief ministership, joined hands with the Congress and NCP, the BJP is expected to tread more carefully in Bihar. For Nitish Kumar, with his reputation for doing ‘flip flops’, can always extend outside support to Tejashwi Yadav, if the BJP tries to replace him. Unless the BJP can, at a future date, break the JD(U), the Congress and wean away MLAs also from the RJD to form its ‘own’ government. But that does not seem to be on the cards for the moment.
Bihar has sent a strong message to the Opposition parties. They will have to combine effectively to have any chance of taking on the Modi-led BJP in states going to the polls. The RJD’s alliance with the Left parties in Bihar— CPI(ML), CPI(M) and CPI— did well, leading to a high strike rate.
Tejashwi Yadav might have just made it, had he not allowed Mukesh Sahni’s Mallah (Most backward)-based VIP party to leave the Mahagathbandhan over the issue of seat-sharing. This might have been possible had he given less seats to the Congress and accommodated the ‘VIP’ party and enabled Left parties to fight more seats, the ticket distribution based on the ground level strength of the parties today rather than on the position they enjoyed in the past. This Congress’ tally came down from what it was in 2015. While the RJD was able to transfer its votes to the Congress, the Congress could not ensure this for the RJD candidates. As it is, the Congress’ kitty does not have much to transfer.
The five seats won by Asaddudin Owaisi, who did well in the Muslim-dominated areas of Bihar (Seemanchal) should come as a wake-up call for the Congress. The Muslims, who feel beleaguered and apprehensive, particularly with the way they have been targeted by the BJP, after the NRC, CAA and abrogation of Article 370, have looked to the Congress as the only party which would be able to take on the BJP nationally. For them to turn to Owaisi’s party which was not in a position to form the government in Bihar, being part of the small so-called ‘Third Front’, and not to the Congress, shows their growing sense of alienation from the grand old party. This is not good news for the Congress.
The crisis — and drift — in the Congress is not likely to go away unless the party settles the question of its leadership, which is hanging out there unaddressed.
Given the Bihar outcome, will the Opposition parties look afresh at the new challenge being mounted by a BJP determined to increase its footprint all over India, state after state, and go for one-party dominance in the country? Or will it remain business as usual?
(The author is a senior political commentator)