By Rajeev Dhavan

“If the BJP wins J&K by such plans, it will be at the expense of the unity and integrity of India, of which the state is an indelible part. India is on the verge of losing J&K, not to Pulwama-style attacks but by alienating the Valley to dissolve civil liberties and fair elections”, says the author.

The Modi-Shah plan to conquer all of India through elections and President’s rule, by fair means or foul, is self-evident. They have used allies in the Northeast, but the alliances in J&K have failed. They have burnt all boats in the Valley. No one will align with them. The only hope being the Jammu region and the Hindu vote. The latest maneuver is to increase the reserved seats by using President’s rule and parliamentary majorities, so that Jammu and Hindu constituencies acquire a dominant edge. This is nothing short of gerrymandering by using the Delimitation Commission to increase the Jammu seats to make it Hindu versus Muslim and also Hindu region versus Muslim region. Presently, Jammu has 37, Kashmir 46 and Ladakh four seats, with populations and areas, respectively, at 54.9% and 15.8% (Kashmir), 42.9% and 25.9% (Jammu) and 2.2% and 58.3% (Ladakh). The post-general election plan unfurled by Amit Shah is towards forced delimitation before the state elections to give the BJP an advantage. The plan is to empower Gujjars, Bakarwals, Gaddis, Sippis (SC and ST) with special seats to the Assembly and increase the Hindu share in the state as a whole. The English adage applies: ‘Play the game according to the rules, but if in doubt, change the rules.’

The concept of delimitation is to examine the population (demography) with accessibility (topography). In Kashmir, different valleys cannot be arbitrarily merged. In Ladakh, the surface area is large but demography low. Delimitation is necessarily for readjustment after a Census (Article 82, Constitution) through delimitation Acts. At times, delimitation has been controversial. In 2002, constituencies were frozen till 2026 for Parliament on the basis of the 1971 Census, and for state Assemblies it was the 2001 Census. Similarly, Article 47 of the J&K Constitution freezes readjustment in its Assembly till 2026. The next delimitation will come in 2031, before which a Census should take place. The freezing was done for the pragmatic reason of preserving Lok Sabha seats in various states, numerically and qualitatively, irrespective of population increase in some states at the expense of others. This must apply within reasonable limits to parts of states favorable to a political party or religion. The Farooq Abdullah freeze of 2002 was upheld by the high court. The Supreme Court rejected the Panther Party’s argument for SC and ST seats in the Valley. While the last delimitation was made by the KK Gupta Commission in 1995 with great difficulty, Governor Jagmohan had used President’s rule to enable the exercise. But for this freeze in J&K, the next exercise would have been done in 2005. Defreezing for one state but not the others is obviously an invidious political advantage.

It is obvious that in J&K under normal democratic rule, a new delimitation would not be possible. Ghulam Nabi Azad’s attempt of a 25% increase (22 seats) in J&K did not fructify because it required a two-third vote in the Assembly. So echoing 1993-95, the game plan is to proceed undemocratically under emergency rule. With J&K under President’s rule, the Governor can make legislative changes that would clearly not have passed in the Assembly. The Governor is the BJP-appointed Satya Pal Malik, who may be biased. A politically controversial delimitation exercise would destroy democracy even before the electoral process starts.

J&K has had its share of undemocratic misfortune, including Sheikh Abdullah’s arrest in 1953; Congress playing musical chairs with chief ministers; the rigged election in the 1980s, when Rajiv Gandhi was in power at the Centre; the subversion of power by Governors, including Jagmohan; and ruthlessness of the BJP at the Centre in bringing down its own Mehbooba Mufti coalition. But with the Modi-Shah duo hungry for an all-India conquest, J&K has become target No. 1. The proposed exercise to seek victory through manipulating seats is blatantly communal. The idea is to seek electoral division and cause a rift between J&K to make Jammu triumph over Kashmir. Since two separate states cannot be created, this plan would test drive a virtual partition running through the state, which the BJP wants to exploit to the hilt.

Pakistan would love such a solution which would make its claim to the Valley stronger. This plan would divide the state communally on the grounds of religion by fiddling with constituencies to increase the Hindu electoral power over Muslims. The purpose behind this is both anti-Muslim as well as to secure an electoral victory for the BJP in the forthcoming elections. After shouting from the rooftops that the BJP is not a communal party, it now sports a religious appeal and plays with communal agendas within days of its re-election. The idea is to have a Hindu chief minister. The tragedy is that these antics have begun soon after the recent election victory. If this represents a beginning, it will be followed by further Hindu fundamentalist measures through stealth and deceit. If the plan succeeds, would such a Hindu chief minister be from the saffron clan? Could we call this a surgical strike to defend India’s ‘secular’ democracy?

This, by itself, dashes all hope of a BJP secular agenda to bring communities and faiths together. If the BJP wins J&K by such plans, it will be at the expense of the unity and integrity of India, of which the state is an indelible part. India is on the verge of losing J&K, not to Pulwama-style attacks but by alienating the Valley to dissolve civil liberties and fair elections.

Amit Shah is the Home Minister of all of India and has sworn to uphold  the Constitution which he ‘promises’ to trample on by deceit.

(The author is a Senior Advocate, Supreme court of India)

(Courtesy / The Tribune)