At core of predicament is Congress’s inability to mold itself into a leader of a heterogeneous bloc

“What do the circumstances portend for the Opposition’s coalition? The constituents of INDIA met in New Delhi on December 19, apparently to clear the air of disunity that had begun to cloud the coalition after its earlier sessions and following the differences over seat-sharing between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal before the recent state elections. A sense of cooperation and consensus among the parties —which included a Shiv Sena faction headed by Uddhav Thackeray, the Mandalised bloc from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the DMK and its allies and the Aam Aadmi Party — continued to be elusive. It still isn’t clear if the participants were out to score an own-goal by flagging issues that were earlier deemed as ‘irrelevant’ or quite happy to articulate their contradictions.”

To see the glass as half full or half empty depends on how buoyant or cynical an observer is. Since its inception in June, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), comprising 28 parties, has envisaged roping in as many Opposition forces as it can mobilize in a joint front to fight the BJP in the 2024 General Election. The formation of the bloc, in which the Congress is as important an investor as the regional parties, was an admission on the part of the Gandhis that their political legacy was no longer remarkable enough to take on the BJP single-handedly. The series of meetings INDIA held iterated the Congress’s position as an equal and not a first among equals. It still isn’t clear if the participants were out to score an own-goal by flagging issues that were earlier deemed as ‘irrelevant’ or quite happy to articulate their contradictions.

Ideally, recent events ought to have underscored the need for such a front even more deeply, especially for the Congress, because the favorable atmospherics that prevailed during INDIA’s first congregation at Patna had dissipated. Seven months before that, there was a sense of hope. Rahul Gandhi had completed his marathon Bharat Jodo Yatra, which went some way in reimagining popular perception of the leader who had been seen as a reluctant and naive politician. The Congress scored an impressive win over the BJP in Karnataka and decimated the Janata Dal (Secular), which went on to seek refuge in the NDA’s fold.

With 2023 nearing its end, the scenario has turned depressing for the Opposition. The BJP swept the elections in three states in the Hindi heartland in a direct faceoff with the Congress. The Congress now exists in slivers in this region. In the ongoing winter session of Parliament, the BJP has reasserted its near-hegemonic position amid projections of a comeback in 2024. It has pulverized the Opposition, which had sought a statement from the government regarding the security breach in Parliament but was rebuffed. Not only did the government reject the suggestion of being accountable to elected MPs, it also passed Bills with far-reaching implications for data security and amendments in the criminal laws without debate and discussion. After the mass suspension of MPs, the Opposition’s presence in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha has shrunk alarmingly. The picture which both Houses presented marked the culmination of a long-cherished RSS project to install an overbearing Centre with the states orbiting around it like satellites.

What do the circumstances portend for the Opposition’s coalition? The constituents of INDIA met in New Delhi on December 19, apparently to clear the air of disunity that had begun to cloud the coalition after its earlier sessions and following the differences over seat-sharing between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal before the recent state elections. A sense of cooperation and consensus among the parties —which included a Shiv Sena faction headed by Uddhav Thackeray, the Mandalised bloc from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the DMK and its allies and the Aam Aadmi Party — continued to be elusive. It still isn’t clear if the participants were out to score an own-goal by flagging issues that were earlier deemed as ‘irrelevant’ or quite happy to articulate their contradictions.

Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress and AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal proposed Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s name as INDIA’s prime-ministerial candidate. It seemed as if they had only discussed the matter among themselves, believing they could persuade their associates that the time was ripe to raise the pitch for India’s first Dalit PM and counterbalance the BJP’s strategy of consolidating the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Although JD(U) leader and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar consistently maintained that he did not aspire for the PM’s post, his latent ambitions surfaced through statements by his colleagues in the past. A structured discussion on the PM candidate never took off, especially after Kharge scotched the idea, although some reports quoted him talking about his long years in public service and his conduct as a ‘fighter’ to mean that he was not averse to handling the Mamata-Kejriwal googly. Uddhav stressed that the question of electing a PM arose only if the coalition brought in enough MPs and what INDIA needed immediately was a convener to hold the grouping together.

Certain red lines, accentuating the existence of a regional cleave and intra-state pinpricks, were drawn. When TR Baalu, a senior DMK representative, sought a translation of Nitish’s speech, he was snubbed by the Bihar CM, who demanded that Baalu should learn Hindi, a ‘national’ language. By juxtaposing the north-south divide that was displayed in Tuesday’s meeting with the BJP’s persistent attempts to shed the tag of being a Hindi-belt party, visible in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s overtures to Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it becomes clear who — the NDA or INDIA — has the big picture in front and what correctives need to be made.

While there was a general agreement that the seat-sharing process should be completed by the year-end, where do things stand now? Samajwadi leader Ram Gopal Yadav made it clear that his party would quit INDIA if there was a proposal to accommodate the Bahujan Samaj Party. As Mamata pitched for a year-end deadline, there was no indication from her of wanting to forge a broader alliance involving the TMC, the Left Front and the Congress. Given the mutual antagonism on the ground, it seems unlikely the idea would take off. In Maharashtra, it appears that while Uddhav’s Sena and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party have their terrain mapped out, the Congress is in a quandary over its strong areas, if indeed there are any.

At the core of the predicament faced by INDIA is the Congress’ inability to mold itself into the leader of an admittedly heterogeneous formation, struggling for a helmsman and a narrative. While everybody conceded the need for a shared agenda and holding collective meetings that didn’t seem unwieldy, the question is: Who will hold the baton for INDIA?
(The author is a senior journalist)