In Indian electoral politics, alliances are formed on the basis of strengths rather than weaknesses of the participants. The aura of success surrounding Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra is set to provide him with moral authority to play a pivotal role. In addition, in Sonia Gandhi, Rahul has a reserve bench of sorts; the former party chief can act as a line of communication with many non-NDA allies, including the Left, to keep the mahagathbandhan going. 

This year, the Congress faces a litmus test in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. If it can win these states, the grand old party would emerge as a serious challenger for the 2024 General Election.

There are many quotes that have been attributed to Mahatma Gandhi. In the Congress party office at 24, Akbar Road, one of them reads, “Kabhi kabhi hum apne virodhiyon ke karan aage badhte hain.” (At times, we move ahead due to our opponents). Then there is another one saying, “Pehle woh aap par dhyan nahin denge, phir who aap par hasenge, phir aapse ladengen, aur tab aap jeet jayenge.”(First they would not pay any attention to you, then they would mock you and then they would fight with you. You would win once these stages are completed).

In the context of Rahul Gandhi’s ongoing abstract, yet arduous, Bharat Jodo Yatra, these quotes ring a bell, bringing some relevance and hope for the Congress leader.

There is a broader and growing consensus of sorts among Rahul’s detractors and well-wishers that finally, the Gandhi scion is showing signs of purpose, perseverance and hope in his political journey that began in 2004.

Politically, the yatra may or may not be a game-changer, but it has succeeded in establishing Rahul as a credible politician who can walk the talk, intermingle with the masses and get support from a range of politicians and celebrities — from MK Stalin, Aaditya Thackeray, Supriya Sule and Farooq Abdullah to Raghuram Rajan, AS Dulat, Swara Bhaskar and Kamal Haasan.

More importantly, the BJP’s stringent criticism, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya’s ‘appeal’ to suspend the yatra over Covid concerns, and the outrage over Rahul’s comments on China allegedly entering Indian territory have helped him become a singular dissenting voice.

When the yatra began from Kanyakumari, Rahul’s popularity ratings were at an all-time low. The Congress organization was in a shambles and the leadership issue was far from settled. While the yatra was on the Kerala-Karnataka border, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, at that time tipped to be the next AICC president, stunned friends and foes alike by showing defiance, a throwback to the bygone era of Devaraj Urs, Arjun Singh and other party chief ministers.

But throughout the Congress organizational election process, Rahul stayed away and focused on the yatra. The Assembly polls of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat offered a mixed bag as the Congress went on to win HP. It was a surprise for those predicting the Congress’ death. The ‘corpse’ is, in fact, very much alive and kicking.

This year, the Congress faces a litmus test in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. If it can win these states, the grand old party would emerge as a serious challenger for the 2024 General Election.

We need to remember that the fortunes of the Congress and other non-BJP parties are closely linked to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls where the non-BJP, non-NDA Opposition and the Congress-UPA partners will have to target the ‘half of half’, i.e. half of the 272 Lok Sabha seats on their own — a challenging but not unmanageable number in the 2024 battle.

There are four crucial states of West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra and Karnataka where the BJP-NDA had done exceedingly well in 2019 but the subsequent political developments have unfolded a new scenario. In West Bengal, for example, the BJP had won 18 Lok Sabha seats out of 42, while in Bihar, the alliance with the JD(U) had resulted in its netting 39 out of 40 parliamentary seats. In Karnataka, the BJP had won 25 out of 28 seats, while in Maharashtra, the alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena  had resulted in the NDA allies winning 42 out of 48 seats. Imagine a situation if the BJP’s strength from these four states gets reduced to half. A simple majority of 272 would become a distant dream and prospects of a khichdi government a reality.

The Congress, in order to be a contender, has to win 100 or more Lok Sabha seats from states such as Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and a few others where the grand old party has been in direct contest with the BJP or traditionally has a strong presence.

Next year’s parliamentary polls are set to be contested in contrasting styles. If Team Modi is set to make full use of the Prime Minister’s personal ratings, big-ticket projects, Covid-19 handling in the context of the massive vaccination programme, achievements on the diplomatic front and reliance on emotive issues like the Ram Temple, the Congress and its potential allies are prepared to take the battle to the states where regional players are expected to hold sway.

So, if the parties led by Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar, MK Stalin, Naveen Patnaik, HD Kumaraswamy, Chandrababu Naidu and Akhilesh Yadav together manage to hold on to a chunk of the parliamentary seats, the Congress has the task of doing well in most of the Hindi-belt states and the Northeast.

In Indian electoral politics, alliances are formed on the basis of strengths rather than weaknesses of the participants. The aura of success surrounding Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra is set to provide him with moral authority to play a pivotal role. In addition, in Sonia Gandhi, Rahul has a reserve bench of sorts; the former party chief can act as a line of communication with many non-NDA allies, including the Left, to keep the mahagathbandhan going.

(Rashid Kidwai is a Senior Journalist and Author)