A careful analysis of the election results since 1967 would reveal that the percentage of votes polled by national parties, mainly the Congress, except for 1977 and 1997, has been more than 50. In 1967, for example, when Punjab had its first coalition government — the United Front — the Congress had polled 36.56 per cent of the total votes against 26.47 per cent votes polled by all state parties. The overall votes polled by national parties, including the Congress, Jana Sangh, CPI, CPM, Praja Socialist Party and Swatantra Party — was 56.60. In 1969, the share of national parties rose to 58.34 per cent, with the Congress increasing its share to 39.18 per cent while the state parties accounted for only 30.44 per cent of the votes. In 1972, when the Congress returned to power in the State, the share of the national parties increased slightly to 58.77 per cent while those of state parties dropped to 28.73 per cent. The Congress had taken its poll percentage to 42.84, which had been surpassed only twice afterwards, first in 1980 when the Congress got 45.19 per cent of the total votes polled and again in 1992 when it got 43.71 per cent votes.

The 1992 election was exceptional in the history of Punjab. The mainstream Shiromani Akali Dal boycotted the elections. A faction of the Dal, led by the then rebel Akali leader, Capt Amarinder Singh, contested 58 seats and won only three. This was the only occasion when the percentage of votes dropped to 23.82, the lowest ever. The other lowest being 64.33 in 1980. The share of national parties dropped to 40.29 per cent, the only time below 50 per cent, in 1997 when besides 26.59 per cent of the votes secured by the Congress, all the national parties, including the BJP, CPI and CPM had aggregated 40.29 per cent. The most distinguishing aspect of Punjab politics has been that the Akalis, even at times securing clear majority, have been aligning themselves with the Jana Sangh/Bharatiya Janata Party. This combination alienated both Sikh and Hindu votes from the once powerful Congress.

The emergence of the Bahujan Samaj Party in the 1992 elections saw this political outfit of the downtrodden getting 16.32 per cent of the valid votes polled which in the 1992 elections was more than three times that secured by the Akali Dal led by Capt Amarinder Singh. Interestingly, the BSP had bagged nine seats against three by the Akalis. The BSP, however, failed to maintain its tempo and in the 1997 elections, after witnessing a vertical split-leading to the formation of the Bahujan Semaj Morcha headed by Mr. Satnam Singh Kainth — saw its share of vote coming down to 7.48 per cent of the total valid votes and its share in the Vidhan Sabha dropping to one. The electorate in Punjab have known to participate in the process enthusiastically, averaging more than 64 per cent in all the previous elections held in the State so far.

Till date, the Shiromani Akali Dal has never crossed the 40 per cent barrier. Its best performance was in 1985 when it got 38.01 per cent of the total valid votes. In 1997, this percentage dropped slightly to 37.64. Besides the Congress and the Akali Dal, other main players in Punjab politics have been Jana Sangh/BJP, CPI, CPM and briefly the Janata Party, which in the 1977 elections polled 14.99 per cent votes to win 25 seats out of 41 candidates put up by it.

The Communists — the CPI and the CPM — put together had been aggregating about 9 to 10 percent of the total valid votes polled till 1997. The exceptions were the 1967 and 1969 election when they polled less than 8 per cent but since 1972, they have been averaging 9 per cent and above. In the 1967 elections they polled 8.46 per cent votes, 7.91 per cent in 1969, 9.77 per cent in 1972 and 9.60 per cent in 1977 winning eight, six, 11 and 15 seats collectively, respectively.

In 1980, they crossed the double figure mark, aggregating 10.52 per cent to win 14 seats — nine by the CPI and five by the CPM. Since then, their share, both in percentage of valid votes and seats in the Vidhan Sabha, has been dropping as in the 1997 elections, they got only 4.77 per cent of total valid votes with two seats in the Vidhan Sabha. In the last Vidhan Sabha, the Communists went unrepresented. During the first term of Capt Amarinder Singh as Chief Minister, both the Communist legislators, defected and joined Congress. Since then, the Communists had been drawing a blank in Vidhan Sabha elections.

(Prabhjot Singh is a veteran journalist with over three decades of experience covering a wide spectrum of subjects and stories. He has covered  Punjab and Sikh affairs for more than three decades besides covering seven Olympics and several major sporting events and hosting TV shows. For more in-depth analysis please visit probingeye.com  or follow him on Twitter.com/probingeye)