BY ARUN JOSHI

The hope of a turnaround in Kashmir after Narendra Modi became the PM with a huge mandate is ebbing. After three years in office, Modi has little time left for course correction. Islamic radicalization and resistance have converged, undermining the huge mandate of the BJP.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Kashmir policy has not come out of wraps even after three years. It is true that Kashmir, a volatile problem with international ramifications, is by itself an enigma. The problem, as illustrated by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, has two dimensions – internal and external. That sums up the legacy that Modi inherited from Atal Behari Vajpayee who tried to address the issue of the conflict resolution by expanding the ambit of talks within the state. His approach toward Pakistan yielded some substantive results too before those went downhill under the UPA regime, following 26/11.

After three years, Modi has little time left to go in for course-correction as the challenges have multiplied during this period. Islamic radicalization and resistance have converged, pinning down Kashmiri nationalism.

At the start of his innings, Modi understood the external and internal dimensions, but inaction and inattention toward simmering discontent in the Valley has posed newer challenges. The presence of Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at Modi’s swearing-in ceremony three years ago had sent out positive signals. This highpoint of the Modi brand of diplomatic outreach triggered hope. Kashmiris hoped that Modi with his huge mandate would ensure that the state turned the corner because the mandate was huge and from the country’s Hindu majority. It is believed that only a strong Hindu national leader can take a bold decision on Kashmir. However, Modi has not been able to chart a successful course and the mandate too is getting undermined.

Initially, there was a cautious optimism in the air. Modi conducted himself well by not raising the contentious issue of the oftrepeated BJP mantra of abrogation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370. He also did not indulge in Pakistan bashing in the first few months in the office. His development mantra that promised basic amenities like 24×7 water, power supply and food to everyone as well as narrowing of the distances through road and rail links was aimed at addressing the internal problem.

This appeared a grand strategy with great chances of success. The people of the state reeling under mis-governance and corruption for over decades, welcomed it.

Politically, he promised to tread the path of “humanity, democracy and Kashmiriyat” to resolve the K-issue. But that was not to be. There was neither backchannel dialogue nor any visible effort to initiate talks anywhere. Doubts started creeping in about Modi’s roadmap on Kashmir. These deepened further when the Foreign Secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan were cancelled in August 2014. The excuse was that the Hurriyat Conference leaders visited the Pakistan High Commission in Delhi ahead of talks. That was nothing new. Delhi was drawing new redlines without assessing the fallout on the external dimension or its adverse ripple impact on the internal one.

This off-and-on business of talks went on for almost two years. Now these stand halted in the tracks following the September 18, 2016 Fidayeen attack at the Uri Garrison in which more than 20 soldiers were killed. The much-publicized and politicized “surgical strikes” led to a series of retaliatory terror attacks. Thirty nine security personnel have been killed in Kashmir since then. The ranks of local militancy have swelled to 150. The Line of Control is a mini war theatre where the population has been displaced and lives in constant fear in migrant camps on the border.

Democracy touched a new low when the bypoll to the Srinagar Parliamentary constituency recorded merely 7 per cent voting – a drastic decline from the over 60 per cent turnout in the 2014 Assembly elections. India not only lost the faith of the people, but the USP of the Kashmiris’ faith in democracy through huge participation inelections also suffered a severe jolt.

This was the result of the incompatible PDP-BJP alliance, akin to the coming together of the North Pole and the South Pole. This coming together could not survive the test of the democratic process, which further suffered due to the postponement and subsequent cancellation of the April 12 byelection to the Anantnag Parliamentary constituency. The rigid thinking of the Election Commission inflicted this blow. The demand made for a large number of troops was as if the polls were going to be a war.

All these happenings have posed a question mark over the situation in Kashmir, where among others, the student community too is a partner in stone throwing street agitations.

Post-killing of militant commander Burhan Wani in July 2016, the radicalization is manifest everywhere. Burhan’s successor Zakir Musa, following in his footsteps, declared that “Kashmiris are fighting for Islam” and not for the “freedom of Kashmir”. He has since quit Hizb-ul-Mujahadeen.

Burhan wanted to set up a Caliphate and Zakir has drawn inspiration from Isis and Al-Qaida. This has created uncertainty and can fuel the crisis. The government has no clue how to handle it. The Kashmir policy, if any, is going haywire.

Guns and stones can be neutralized by the use of force, but how can it curb the radicalization,which hasgrown because of the developments in Pakistan – the first nation to have two separate clubs of good and bad terrorists. The way Pakistan has honored Ehsanullah Ehsan, the former spokesperson of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) demonstrates practitioners of terrorism too stand to get rewarded. The TTP was responsible for the massacre of the students of the Army school in Peshawar in December 2014.

Perhaps Modi, like his predecessor Manmohan Singh, believes that the situation in Kashmir would take a turn for the better by itself. That is not going to happen. There are many layers to the internal dimension now.

In fact, the situation has turned much worse. India is facing more censure than Pakistan by the violent images travelling abroad. The Indian Army, despite returning to the old practice of cordonand- search operations finds its image bruised by the stone-throwers and hecklers. It is a dangerous terrain because the prolonged conflict and resistance have overtaken the development narrative. The Prime Minister’s call to make a choice between terrorism and tourism has not worked despite the BJP being in power in Kashmir along with the PDP. Both the parties are down. The recovery path has become more difficult.

(Author can be reached at ajoshi57@gmail.com)