NEW YORK (TIP): In 60 days we will vote for our next President. And, the new CNN/ORC poll suggests an extremely close contest contrary to what political pundits had speculated a year ago.
Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at just 2%.
Just a couple weeks ago, Clinton’s convention propelled her to an 8-point lead among registered voters in an early-August CNN/ORC Poll. And now, Clinton’s lead has largely evaporated despite a challenging month for Trump, which saw an overhaul of his campaign staff, announcements of support for Clinton from several high-profile Republicans and criticism of his campaign strategy.
But most voters say they still expect to see Clinton prevail in November, and 59% think she will be the one to get to 270 electoral votes vs. 34% who think Trump has the better shot at winning.
Wit is worth noting here that Clinton and her allies have outspent Trump and his allies by an eye-popping 4.5-to-1 margin in August as reported by the Observer.
The Analysis
Women break for Clinton (53% to 38%) while men shift Trump’s way (54% to 32%). Among women, those who are unmarried make up the core of her support, 73% of unmarried women back Clinton compared with just 36% of married women. Among men, no such marriage gap emerges, as both unmarried and married men favor Trump.
Younger voters are in Clinton’s corner (54% to 29%among those under age 45) while the older ones are more apt to back Trump (54% to 39% among those age 45 or older).
Whites mostly support Trump (55% to 34%), while non-whites favor Clinton by a nearly 4-to-1 margin (71% to 18%).
Most college grads back Clinton while those without degrees mostly support Trump, and that divide deepens among white voters.
Whites who do not hold college degrees support Trump by an almost 3-to-1 margin (68% to 24%) while whites who do have college degrees split 49% for Clinton to 36% for Trump and 11% for Johnson.
“I really pay no attention to polls. When they are good for me — and there have been a lot of them that have been good for me recently — I don’t pay attention,” Clinton said. “When they are not so good, I don’t pay attention. We are on a course that we are sticking with.”
Among the broader pool of registered voters, Clinton edges Trump by 3 points. The shift among these voters since the convention is largely due to a rebound in Trump’s numbers rather than a slide in Clinton’s. He’s gone from 37% support then to 41% among registered voters now.
Trump holds an edge over Clinton as more trusted to handle two of voters’ top four issues — the economy (56%trust Trump vs. 41% Clinton) and terrorism (51% Trump to 45% Clinton). Clinton holds a solid edge on foreign policy (56% trust her to Trump’s 40%), and the public is divided over the fourth issue in the bunch, immigration. On that, 49% favor Clinton’s approach, 47% Trump’s. At Trump’s recent campaign appearances, he has argued that he would do more to improve life for racial and ethnic minorities, but voters seem to disagree, 58% say Clinton is better on that score vs. 36% who choose Trump, and among non-whites, 86% choose Clinton to just 12% who think Trump would better improve their lives.
Trump has his largest edge of the campaign as the more honest and trustworthy of the two major candidates (50%say he is more honest and trustworthy vs. just 35%choosing Clinton) and as the stronger leader, 50% to 42%. Clinton continues to be seen as holding the better temperament to serve effectively as president (56% to 36%) and better able to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief (50% to 45%).
Read the complete poll results @