TORONTO (TIP): Notwithstanding its political clout, the Indian diaspora is locked in a piquant situation. Starting last year, when an unprecedented and unpleasant diplomatic spat erupted between the country of its origin (India) and the country of its present domicile (Canada) over “foreign interference,” the nearly two-million-strong community has landed in political and economic wilderness. Its problems have been aggravated further by the change of administration in the neighboring United States and a political upheaval in Canadian federal politics.

Thriving strongly for more than a century on people-to-people bondage without much political support from either of the countries, it now faces an uncertain future as special schemes and incentives, including express entry, free flow of student visas, and family reunification programs, have either been suspended or their provisions made tougher to remain attractive. Changes are bound to impact people-to-people bondage.

Its political clout too has been blunted as the only candidate of Indian descent in the Liberal party leadership run, Chandra Arya, has been declared ineligible for the top political position in Canada. His exclusion, leaving six candidates in the contest, has sparked controversy and questions regarding the transparency and legitimacy of the Liberal Party’s leadership election process. The only other candidate of Indian descent left in the contest is Ruby Dhalla, a former Liberal MP from Bampton-Springdale. The Liberal caucus has 16 members of the Indian descent.

Two of them – Anita Anand and Harjit Singh Sajjan – who have enjoyed the privilege of becoming the first politicians of South Asian descent to head the sensitive Ministry of Defense have made public their intent not to contest the 2025 federal elections. Most of the other members of the Liberal Party of South Asian origin, including Sukh Dhaliwal, Parm Bains, Randeep Serai, George Chahal, and Gary Anandasangaree – have thrown their weight behind former Governor of Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, in the Liberal party leadership race. Harjit Singh Sajjan has come out supporting Mark Carney, but Anita Anand has kept her cards close to her chest.

Another contender and Foreign Minister Melanie Joly not only pulled herself out of the leadership run but also decided to support Mark Carney, an acclaimed financial or economic wizard, who has been promising to pull Canada out of its present debt-torn fragile economy.

None of the South Asian MPs in the Canadian House of Commons has supported other candidates in the leadership run, including former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, Leader of the House Karina Gould.

In the present House of Commons, Liberals have the largest number of MPs of South Asian descent followed by the official Opposition Party, the Conservatives, and the fourth largest party, New Democrats. Liberals have 16, Conservatives four and the NDP one in its leader Jagmeet Singh. The third largest party, Bloc Quebecois, is not represented by the community.

Among those representing the South Asian community in the present House of Commons include Anju Dhillon, Bardish Chagger, Ruby Sahota, Kamal Khera, Sonia Sidhu, Anita Anand, Chandra Arya, Parm Bains, Randeep Serai, Sukh Dhaliwal, George Chahal, Iqwinder Ghaheer, Arif Virani, Gary Anandasangaree Maninder Sidhu, (all from Liberals), Tim Uppal, Jasraj Singh Hallan, Arpan Khanna and Shuvaloy Majumdar (all Conservatives) and Jagmeet Singh (NDP).

With all three opposition parties clearly on the warpath to bring down the minority Liberal government at the first available opportunity and the threatened tariff war by the United States hanging looking imminent, the new Liberal Prime Minister will be daunted by an unspecified tenure in office that could extend from a few weeks to a couple of months as the federal elections are due in October. A no-confidence motion can bring the government to an abrupt end anytime it resumes its sitting on March 24.

How many of the sitting MPs of South Asian descent will find their place back in the next House of Commons depends largely on the choice of the new leader-cum-Prime Minister and the way the Government takes on the Donald Trump Administration-II. Challenges are mammoth.